This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
As we approach the New Year, why not make an investment New Year's Resolution. The time has come to consider whether you have outgrown your traditional mutual funds. Canadians pay the highest mutual fund management fees, and the bottom line is that regardless of the returns they generate, your mutual fund company still gets paid. If you have a portfolio of several hundred thousand dollars, the fact is, you are likely paying thousands of dollars in excess management fees. Do you know what you are paying, and have you considered the dramatic impact these costs have on your net worth? Why not take the time to find out. Do you want to discuss your alternatives?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260. This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing. Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Monday, December 29, 2008
Friday, December 26, 2008
Some Lessons from 2008
Some Lessons from 2008
As we prepare to close the chapter on 2008, few tears will be shed as we leave a truly dreadful year behind us. Before we consign the year to the dustbin, here are 10 lessons we can take from 2008 to help guide us going forward. In a few cases, these were new lessons – in most, however, they were reminders of things we had learned in the past but perhaps forgotten.
1. Mispricing of risk
Arguably, the root of the market downturn was the dramatic mispricing of risk by companies in the financial sector. Going forward, there will be much greater focus on the level of risk all companies assume and risk management will be crucial for every financial institution in particular. There will also be much greater emphasis by companies on transparency, managing complexity and ensuring that incentives for management are aligned with mid term shareholder interests.
This will be evident in two dominant areas, the cost of borrowing, and in the value given to equity investments, and their earnings. About eighteen months ago, I discussed the state of commercial borrowing with the president of a Canadian bank. He expressed that there was little return in commercial lending, and that it made no sense. He told me that there was little difference between the cost of government bonds, and commercial loans, so risk was not being rewarded, nor was it being priced properly. To his credit, he was proven right, but his company's stock has followed the financial sector lower.
The pendulum has swung to the other extreme, with high yield debt currently yielding around twenty one percent over government treasuries...approximately triple what would be considered normal. Incredibly strong companies are forced to pay well over ten percent to raise equity in the US today, and even the Canadian banks are paying eight percent or more to raise capital.
Common equity is even more expensive, with one Canadian bank dropping in price to the point where its dividend yielded in excess of ten percent. That would have been unthinkable as 2008 began.
2. A subprime mortgage bubble
The high cost of capital for banks may not be a surprise in a global market where money was loaned to people with little or no capacity to repay their loans.
It’s now evident that the trillion dollar subprime mortgage industry built around the run up in U.S. real estate prices and financial engineering on Wall Street was just as much a bubble as the high tech sector in 1999 – a reminder of the truth of the old adage that “if something seems too good to be true, it probably is.”
The irony is, the subprime market was primarily a US phenomenon, but its tentacles have polluted the balance sheets of financial institutions worldwide. As the bubble burst, Wall Street's engineering popped up everywhere. Worse, the well intentioned regulatory changes rearding bank balance sheet accounting were badly timed. As mortage defaults rose, mark to market accounting made many of the "toxic" assets nearly worthless, and this dramatically reduced bank lending capacity.
3. Lessons about owning stocks
The lesson was reinforced that stocks are not the place to be unless you have a time horizon of at least five years. After the income trust implosion of 2006 and the hit that banks around the world took this year (Canadian banks actually performed well compared to most countries), we were once again reminded that there is no such thing as a truly “safe” stock in the short term. The dramatic hit taken by U.S. banks and resource stocks was also a reminder of the risks of undue concentration in one sector, no matter how safe it might appear – and particularly of the inherent volatility of commodity-based companies.
That lesson stands in stark contrast to one basic fact; over the long term, stock ownership outperforms other asset classes in long term return. The key is, you must have that long term on your side, and reduce risk as short term cash needs increase.
4. The impact of leverage
We were reminded that the lessons about leverage are just as relevant for investors as for financial institutions - borrowing to invest cuts both ways, boosting return during rising markets but dramatically increasing losses in downturns. Nowhere is this more evident in the massive losses being experienced in highly leveraged US hedge funds, or even money centred US banks.
5. A new level of volatility
With the continuing presence of hyper short term oriented hedge funds, it appears that we’re going to have to get used to historically high levels of volatility. (It seems that the definition of short term has changed; short term investing used to mean investing for years, then months, days and hours – today short term can mean minutes and sometimes seconds.)
One of the more remarkable measurements of volatility is that the VIX, an index that essentially measures the degree of volatility is currently experiencind a 100 day moving average higher than the peak it reached after 9/11. That is insane.
Hedge funds have taken a lot of the blame, but there is plenty to go around, with leveraged ETFs, record mutual fund redemptions (October doubled the old record) and the unwinding of credit default products that were badly regulated, if regulated at all.
6. An interconnected world
In the period leading up to 2008, there was much conversation about global economies and stock markets becoming “decoupled” – and in particular less dependent on the U.S. The reality of 2008 reminded us our world continues to be very much an interconnected one – and that there is no escaping major financial downturns in leading economic sectors such as the U.S. or Europe.
The best evidence of decoupling's lie is the universality of global equity losses, with every major global equity market down 30 percent or more. Canada's own decoupling myth played out in the second half of 2008, with the unwinding of the hedge fund mania for commodities and energy, which crested in June, and saw nearly half of our market value dissolve from July to today. The oil bubble of 2008 will not soon be forgotten.
7. What it means to be truly diversified
We got a lesson about the virtues of true diversification – that if protecting ourselves from market declines is a priority, while it is important to own stocks across different sectors and markets, true diversification only comes by also owning high quality bonds and cash.
Every advisor has met with the client, who has experienced a number of years of solid equity returns, and who has been lulled into believing that holding a global equity mutual fund represents diversification. Worse yet is the investor with a few Canadian equity funds providing their safety net. This investor likely felt insulated from the global crisis in June, but has certainly suffered in the latter half of the year.
This lesson does not mean diversification has eliminated loss. Many properly diversified portfolios have been hit, as corporate bonds, high yield bonds, Asset Backed Commercial Paper, and even money market funds, have had their inglorious days during 2008
8. Maintaining discipline
When it comes to asset allocation, it’s critical that we stick to our guns and maintain our discipline – even when tempted to chase hot sectors or boost equity weightings after periods of strong returns.
9. “It’s different this time”
Some of the hedge fund and private equity investors who were lionized over the past five years and whose performance appeared to defy gravity emerged greatly humbled – again a reiteration of the danger of the words “it’s different this time.”
10. The key role of confidence
Even when it seems we’ve entered a new world, the old truths still apply. The most important element for economies and for markets to work is trust and fundamental confidence. We are unlikely to see a strong economic recovery until we see a return of confidence – confidence by banks in lending to consumers, businesses and each other; confidence by businesses in hiring and investing; confidence by consumers in spending and investing.
As we prepare to close the chapter on 2008, few tears will be shed as we leave a truly dreadful year behind us. Before we consign the year to the dustbin, here are 10 lessons we can take from 2008 to help guide us going forward. In a few cases, these were new lessons – in most, however, they were reminders of things we had learned in the past but perhaps forgotten.
1. Mispricing of risk
Arguably, the root of the market downturn was the dramatic mispricing of risk by companies in the financial sector. Going forward, there will be much greater focus on the level of risk all companies assume and risk management will be crucial for every financial institution in particular. There will also be much greater emphasis by companies on transparency, managing complexity and ensuring that incentives for management are aligned with mid term shareholder interests.
This will be evident in two dominant areas, the cost of borrowing, and in the value given to equity investments, and their earnings. About eighteen months ago, I discussed the state of commercial borrowing with the president of a Canadian bank. He expressed that there was little return in commercial lending, and that it made no sense. He told me that there was little difference between the cost of government bonds, and commercial loans, so risk was not being rewarded, nor was it being priced properly. To his credit, he was proven right, but his company's stock has followed the financial sector lower.
The pendulum has swung to the other extreme, with high yield debt currently yielding around twenty one percent over government treasuries...approximately triple what would be considered normal. Incredibly strong companies are forced to pay well over ten percent to raise equity in the US today, and even the Canadian banks are paying eight percent or more to raise capital.
Common equity is even more expensive, with one Canadian bank dropping in price to the point where its dividend yielded in excess of ten percent. That would have been unthinkable as 2008 began.
2. A subprime mortgage bubble
The high cost of capital for banks may not be a surprise in a global market where money was loaned to people with little or no capacity to repay their loans.
It’s now evident that the trillion dollar subprime mortgage industry built around the run up in U.S. real estate prices and financial engineering on Wall Street was just as much a bubble as the high tech sector in 1999 – a reminder of the truth of the old adage that “if something seems too good to be true, it probably is.”
The irony is, the subprime market was primarily a US phenomenon, but its tentacles have polluted the balance sheets of financial institutions worldwide. As the bubble burst, Wall Street's engineering popped up everywhere. Worse, the well intentioned regulatory changes rearding bank balance sheet accounting were badly timed. As mortage defaults rose, mark to market accounting made many of the "toxic" assets nearly worthless, and this dramatically reduced bank lending capacity.
3. Lessons about owning stocks
The lesson was reinforced that stocks are not the place to be unless you have a time horizon of at least five years. After the income trust implosion of 2006 and the hit that banks around the world took this year (Canadian banks actually performed well compared to most countries), we were once again reminded that there is no such thing as a truly “safe” stock in the short term. The dramatic hit taken by U.S. banks and resource stocks was also a reminder of the risks of undue concentration in one sector, no matter how safe it might appear – and particularly of the inherent volatility of commodity-based companies.
That lesson stands in stark contrast to one basic fact; over the long term, stock ownership outperforms other asset classes in long term return. The key is, you must have that long term on your side, and reduce risk as short term cash needs increase.
4. The impact of leverage
We were reminded that the lessons about leverage are just as relevant for investors as for financial institutions - borrowing to invest cuts both ways, boosting return during rising markets but dramatically increasing losses in downturns. Nowhere is this more evident in the massive losses being experienced in highly leveraged US hedge funds, or even money centred US banks.
5. A new level of volatility
With the continuing presence of hyper short term oriented hedge funds, it appears that we’re going to have to get used to historically high levels of volatility. (It seems that the definition of short term has changed; short term investing used to mean investing for years, then months, days and hours – today short term can mean minutes and sometimes seconds.)
One of the more remarkable measurements of volatility is that the VIX, an index that essentially measures the degree of volatility is currently experiencind a 100 day moving average higher than the peak it reached after 9/11. That is insane.
Hedge funds have taken a lot of the blame, but there is plenty to go around, with leveraged ETFs, record mutual fund redemptions (October doubled the old record) and the unwinding of credit default products that were badly regulated, if regulated at all.
6. An interconnected world
In the period leading up to 2008, there was much conversation about global economies and stock markets becoming “decoupled” – and in particular less dependent on the U.S. The reality of 2008 reminded us our world continues to be very much an interconnected one – and that there is no escaping major financial downturns in leading economic sectors such as the U.S. or Europe.
The best evidence of decoupling's lie is the universality of global equity losses, with every major global equity market down 30 percent or more. Canada's own decoupling myth played out in the second half of 2008, with the unwinding of the hedge fund mania for commodities and energy, which crested in June, and saw nearly half of our market value dissolve from July to today. The oil bubble of 2008 will not soon be forgotten.
7. What it means to be truly diversified
We got a lesson about the virtues of true diversification – that if protecting ourselves from market declines is a priority, while it is important to own stocks across different sectors and markets, true diversification only comes by also owning high quality bonds and cash.
Every advisor has met with the client, who has experienced a number of years of solid equity returns, and who has been lulled into believing that holding a global equity mutual fund represents diversification. Worse yet is the investor with a few Canadian equity funds providing their safety net. This investor likely felt insulated from the global crisis in June, but has certainly suffered in the latter half of the year.
This lesson does not mean diversification has eliminated loss. Many properly diversified portfolios have been hit, as corporate bonds, high yield bonds, Asset Backed Commercial Paper, and even money market funds, have had their inglorious days during 2008
8. Maintaining discipline
When it comes to asset allocation, it’s critical that we stick to our guns and maintain our discipline – even when tempted to chase hot sectors or boost equity weightings after periods of strong returns.
9. “It’s different this time”
Some of the hedge fund and private equity investors who were lionized over the past five years and whose performance appeared to defy gravity emerged greatly humbled – again a reiteration of the danger of the words “it’s different this time.”
10. The key role of confidence
Even when it seems we’ve entered a new world, the old truths still apply. The most important element for economies and for markets to work is trust and fundamental confidence. We are unlikely to see a strong economic recovery until we see a return of confidence – confidence by banks in lending to consumers, businesses and each other; confidence by businesses in hiring and investing; confidence by consumers in spending and investing.
Monday, December 22, 2008
Tax Free Savings Account
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
Lost in all of the noise of 2008 is the introduction of perhaps one of the best financial tools investors have seen in a long time, the Tax Free Savings Account. TFSAs are very attractive, for retirement saving, for education funding, and for estate planning, and every Canadian investor should set one up in 2009. They are simple, flexible, and will make a significant impact on the your ability to accumulate wealth. Over the next few months, you will hear a great deal of advertiing around these plans, and you really should consider setting one up, especially after the challenging year we have had.
Do you want to discuss your alternatives?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260. This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing. Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Lost in all of the noise of 2008 is the introduction of perhaps one of the best financial tools investors have seen in a long time, the Tax Free Savings Account. TFSAs are very attractive, for retirement saving, for education funding, and for estate planning, and every Canadian investor should set one up in 2009. They are simple, flexible, and will make a significant impact on the your ability to accumulate wealth. Over the next few months, you will hear a great deal of advertiing around these plans, and you really should consider setting one up, especially after the challenging year we have had.
Do you want to discuss your alternatives?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260. This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing. Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Investment Alternatives
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
Interest rates are nearing record lows, which is great news if you have a mortgage, but not so good if you are looking for secure returns in this volatile market. On Wednesday, I discussed that there are many investment alternatives for safety concious investors seeking better returns than GICs. Yesterday, I was reviewing a list of Canadian bank bonds, which were offering yields between eight and nine percent! I believe these represent incredible value in difficult markets, especially considering GIC rates. If you are feeling badly wounded by this market, why not seek the safe haven of bonds in Canadian financial institutions? For more information on this subject, tune in tomorrow at 8:30 for a more in depth discussion of the subject. Do you want to discuss your alternatives?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260. This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing. Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Interest rates are nearing record lows, which is great news if you have a mortgage, but not so good if you are looking for secure returns in this volatile market. On Wednesday, I discussed that there are many investment alternatives for safety concious investors seeking better returns than GICs. Yesterday, I was reviewing a list of Canadian bank bonds, which were offering yields between eight and nine percent! I believe these represent incredible value in difficult markets, especially considering GIC rates. If you are feeling badly wounded by this market, why not seek the safe haven of bonds in Canadian financial institutions? For more information on this subject, tune in tomorrow at 8:30 for a more in depth discussion of the subject. Do you want to discuss your alternatives?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260. This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing. Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Interest rates cut to all time low
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts
for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates to its all time
low, essentially reducing the return on government investments to near
zero. Canadian interest rates appear headed the same direction.
Investors may be forced to seek riskier investments to earn any return
at all. Stocks rallied in response, but there are other alternatives,
like bank bonds, corporate bonds, and preferred shares, which are
offering yields of eight, nine, ten percent and beyond. Really
outstanding returns are available with very limited risk, but you
should work with an advisor to ensure you choose an investment that
suits your needs.
Do you want to discuss your alternatives?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit,
www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees,
and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views
expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is
a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates to its all time
low, essentially reducing the return on government investments to near
zero. Canadian interest rates appear headed the same direction.
Investors may be forced to seek riskier investments to earn any return
at all. Stocks rallied in response, but there are other alternatives,
like bank bonds, corporate bonds, and preferred shares, which are
offering yields of eight, nine, ten percent and beyond. Really
outstanding returns are available with very limited risk, but you
should work with an advisor to ensure you choose an investment that
suits your needs.
Do you want to discuss your alternatives?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit,
www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees,
and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views
expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is
a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Monday, December 15, 2008
Weekly Market Insights
December 15, 2008
Market Watch
The big picture
It’s official: Canada in recession
On Tuesday, the Bank of Canada declared that Canada is officially in recession as it cut its key interest rate by a larger-than-expected 75 basis points (a basis point is 1/100th of one percent). The Bank said it sees a "broader and deeper" global downturn than previously anticipated. The news triggered the Canadian dollar to fall by more than half a U.S. cent, and bond prices to rise sharply in anticipation of further rate cuts as the economy weakens.
Meanwhile, Japan sank further into recession in the third quarter, and a new round of grim economic data emerged from Europe. Japan was said to be considering spending US$216 billion on new economic stimulus, or roughly 3.6% of the nation’s GDP. At a summit in Brussels, EU countries announced new stimulus measures totalling US$264 billion, but recent data suggests more action might be needed, including additional rate cuts.
In the U.S., markets surged early in the week as president-elect Obama unveiled the largest American public works plan since the 1950s. The boost was certainly welcome: as of Tuesday, the only two Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks to show a positive one-year return were Wal-Mart and McDonald’s.
The markets
To bailout or not to bailout, that is the question
Following two weeks of record gains and losses, most shares continue to trade at the low end of their historical ranges based on both past earnings and expected future earnings.
Two significant equity market transactions failed to materialize this week. On Thursday, it was confirmed that the $52 billion privatization of BCE will definitely not proceed. Now BCE and its would-be purchasers appear set for a legal showdown to determine whether BCE is entitled to a $1.2 billion deal break-up fee.
On Friday morning, news broke that the US Senate had rejected a proposed $14 billion bailout of US automakers, throwing the industry’s prospects into doubt. Equity markets opened sharply lower on the news. A spokesperson for the US Treasury Department announced that they are prepared to act to avoid any possible collapse of America's three biggest automakers.
Our recommendation
Consistent cash flow counts
· Equities. Gareth Watson, Director, Portfolio Advisory Group, suggests that companies with steady, consistent cash flow are good bets for dividend-seeking investors. Consider names in sectors such as utilities, pipelines, and telecommunications.
· Fixed income. Chris Kennedy, Associate Director, Portfolio Advisory Group, says high quality corporate bonds, such as Canadian banks and insurance companies, continue to offer attractive yields relative to government issues.
· Portfolio strategy. Some regions and sectors have been hit harder than others. Consider reviewing your portfolio allocations to take advantage of lower relative valuations in these areas.
Jeff Wareham
Wealth Advisor
ScotiaMcLeod
148 Fullarton Street,
Suite 1801
London, ON
N6A 5P3
Tel: (519) 660-3260
Toll Free: (800) 265-1242
Fax: (519) 660-3208
Email Jeff
Visit my website
Greg Holland
Tel: (519) 660-3239
Email Greg
Ann Martin
Tel: (519) 660-3260
Email Ann
Unsubscribe
Privacy Policy and Legal Disclaimer
TM Trademarks used under authorization and control of The Bank of Nova Scotia.
ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc., Member CIPF
This publication is intended only to convey information. It is not to be construed as an investment guide or as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned in it. The author is an employee of ScotiaMcLeod, a division of Scotia Capital Inc. ("SCI"), but the data selection, analysis and views expressed herein are solely those of the author and not those of SCI. The author has taken all usual and reasonable precautions to determine that the information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and that the procedures used to summarize and analyze such information are based on approved practices and principles in the investment industry. However, the market forces underlying investment value are subject to sudden and dramatic changes and data availability varies from one moment to the next. Consequently, neither the author nor SCI can make any warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of information, analysis or views contained in this publication or their usefulness or suitability in any particular circumstance. You should not undertake any investment or portfolio assessment or other transaction on the basis of this publication, but should first consult your investment advisor, who can assess all relevant particulars of any proposed investment or transaction. SCI and the author accept no liability of whatsoever kind for any damages or losses incurred by you as a result of reliance upon or use of this publication in contravention of this notice. All performance data represents past performance and is not indicative of future performance. Scotia Capital Inc. and its affiliates collectively beneficially own in excess of 1% of one or more classes of the issued and outstanding equity securities of Royal Bank. Within the last 12 months, Scotia Capital Inc. and/or its affiliates have undertaken an underwriting liability with respect to equity or debt securities of, or have provided advice for a fee with respect to Royal Bank. TM Trademark used under authorization and control of The Bank of Nova Scotia. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc., Member CIPF.
Market Watch
The big picture
It’s official: Canada in recession
On Tuesday, the Bank of Canada declared that Canada is officially in recession as it cut its key interest rate by a larger-than-expected 75 basis points (a basis point is 1/100th of one percent). The Bank said it sees a "broader and deeper" global downturn than previously anticipated. The news triggered the Canadian dollar to fall by more than half a U.S. cent, and bond prices to rise sharply in anticipation of further rate cuts as the economy weakens.
Meanwhile, Japan sank further into recession in the third quarter, and a new round of grim economic data emerged from Europe. Japan was said to be considering spending US$216 billion on new economic stimulus, or roughly 3.6% of the nation’s GDP. At a summit in Brussels, EU countries announced new stimulus measures totalling US$264 billion, but recent data suggests more action might be needed, including additional rate cuts.
In the U.S., markets surged early in the week as president-elect Obama unveiled the largest American public works plan since the 1950s. The boost was certainly welcome: as of Tuesday, the only two Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks to show a positive one-year return were Wal-Mart and McDonald’s.
The markets
To bailout or not to bailout, that is the question
Following two weeks of record gains and losses, most shares continue to trade at the low end of their historical ranges based on both past earnings and expected future earnings.
Two significant equity market transactions failed to materialize this week. On Thursday, it was confirmed that the $52 billion privatization of BCE will definitely not proceed. Now BCE and its would-be purchasers appear set for a legal showdown to determine whether BCE is entitled to a $1.2 billion deal break-up fee.
On Friday morning, news broke that the US Senate had rejected a proposed $14 billion bailout of US automakers, throwing the industry’s prospects into doubt. Equity markets opened sharply lower on the news. A spokesperson for the US Treasury Department announced that they are prepared to act to avoid any possible collapse of America's three biggest automakers.
Our recommendation
Consistent cash flow counts
· Equities. Gareth Watson, Director, Portfolio Advisory Group, suggests that companies with steady, consistent cash flow are good bets for dividend-seeking investors. Consider names in sectors such as utilities, pipelines, and telecommunications.
· Fixed income. Chris Kennedy, Associate Director, Portfolio Advisory Group, says high quality corporate bonds, such as Canadian banks and insurance companies, continue to offer attractive yields relative to government issues.
· Portfolio strategy. Some regions and sectors have been hit harder than others. Consider reviewing your portfolio allocations to take advantage of lower relative valuations in these areas.
Jeff Wareham
Wealth Advisor
ScotiaMcLeod
148 Fullarton Street,
Suite 1801
London, ON
N6A 5P3
Tel: (519) 660-3260
Toll Free: (800) 265-1242
Fax: (519) 660-3208
Email Jeff
Visit my website
Greg Holland
Tel: (519) 660-3239
Email Greg
Ann Martin
Tel: (519) 660-3260
Email Ann
Unsubscribe
Privacy Policy and Legal Disclaimer
TM Trademarks used under authorization and control of The Bank of Nova Scotia.
ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc., Member CIPF
This publication is intended only to convey information. It is not to be construed as an investment guide or as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned in it. The author is an employee of ScotiaMcLeod, a division of Scotia Capital Inc. ("SCI"), but the data selection, analysis and views expressed herein are solely those of the author and not those of SCI. The author has taken all usual and reasonable precautions to determine that the information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and that the procedures used to summarize and analyze such information are based on approved practices and principles in the investment industry. However, the market forces underlying investment value are subject to sudden and dramatic changes and data availability varies from one moment to the next. Consequently, neither the author nor SCI can make any warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of information, analysis or views contained in this publication or their usefulness or suitability in any particular circumstance. You should not undertake any investment or portfolio assessment or other transaction on the basis of this publication, but should first consult your investment advisor, who can assess all relevant particulars of any proposed investment or transaction. SCI and the author accept no liability of whatsoever kind for any damages or losses incurred by you as a result of reliance upon or use of this publication in contravention of this notice. All performance data represents past performance and is not indicative of future performance. Scotia Capital Inc. and its affiliates collectively beneficially own in excess of 1% of one or more classes of the issued and outstanding equity securities of Royal Bank. Within the last 12 months, Scotia Capital Inc. and/or its affiliates have undertaken an underwriting liability with respect to equity or debt securities of, or have provided advice for a fee with respect to Royal Bank. TM Trademark used under authorization and control of The Bank of Nova Scotia. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc., Member CIPF.
December 15, 2008
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts
for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
With 2008 drawing quickly to a close, I am seeing many investors
looking at the Guaranteed Withdrawal Benefit plans like Manulife's
Income Plus, both as a way to defend themselves from market
volatility, and to capitalize on the fact that most feature annual
benefit guarantees each calendar year...in other words, December
purchases get the guarantee in January. These products have a lot of
terms and conditions, and should only be considered with the guidance
of an advisor, but any guarantee is a good thing if it helps you stick
with your long term plan.
Do you want to discuss your alternatives?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit,
www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees,
and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views
expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is
a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
With 2008 drawing quickly to a close, I am seeing many investors
looking at the Guaranteed Withdrawal Benefit plans like Manulife's
Income Plus, both as a way to defend themselves from market
volatility, and to capitalize on the fact that most feature annual
benefit guarantees each calendar year...in other words, December
purchases get the guarantee in January. These products have a lot of
terms and conditions, and should only be considered with the guidance
of an advisor, but any guarantee is a good thing if it helps you stick
with your long term plan.
Do you want to discuss your alternatives?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit,
www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees,
and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views
expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is
a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Friday, December 12, 2008
Where Can an Investor turn for security?
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
It looks like another challenging day on the market, as the apparent failure of the auto bailout will shake investor confidence. Further, the arrest of the former chair of the NASDAQ will do little to help reassure the investing public. Day after day, new problems appear to unnerve even the bravest investor. Where can an investor turn for security in this challenging market environment?
Tune in tomorrow at 8:30, to Beyond Funds Market Weekly, as I review this week in the market, and discuss some of the alternatives that you should consider in these unprecedented times.
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF.
It looks like another challenging day on the market, as the apparent failure of the auto bailout will shake investor confidence. Further, the arrest of the former chair of the NASDAQ will do little to help reassure the investing public. Day after day, new problems appear to unnerve even the bravest investor. Where can an investor turn for security in this challenging market environment?
Tune in tomorrow at 8:30, to Beyond Funds Market Weekly, as I review this week in the market, and discuss some of the alternatives that you should consider in these unprecedented times.
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
December 10, 2008
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
Falling equity prices are tough on everyone, but mutual fund investors are hit especially hard. Good markets or bad, Canadians pay the highest fund management fees in the world, and this is always a problem. When mutual funds are being hit by redemptions which most funds are right now, they are forced to sell their holdings to pay out investors, and often to cover their fees. The end result is that many funds are being forced to sell regardless of what the manager likes or dislikes. This impacts both returns and taxation. In fact many fund investors may end up with tax bills on their funds even though the funds are down.
The time has come to ask, “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF.
Falling equity prices are tough on everyone, but mutual fund investors are hit especially hard. Good markets or bad, Canadians pay the highest fund management fees in the world, and this is always a problem. When mutual funds are being hit by redemptions which most funds are right now, they are forced to sell their holdings to pay out investors, and often to cover their fees. The end result is that many funds are being forced to sell regardless of what the manager likes or dislikes. This impacts both returns and taxation. In fact many fund investors may end up with tax bills on their funds even though the funds are down.
The time has come to ask, “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF.
Monday, December 8, 2008
Factory Layoffs and Revisiting Retirement Plans
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts
for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
Most investors will be focused on Washington this week, as American
lawmakers struggle to save the troubled US automotive manufacturers.
Our region will certainly be watching closely, with our significant
exposure to the auto industry. As factories and suppliers lay off
thousands in this area, our whole economic situation is dramatically
impaired. Many workers in Southwestern Ontario are being forced to
revisit their retirement plans. If you are concerned about your
financial future, looking for a second opinion, or worried whether
your investments are sufficient to meet your retirement needs, give me
a call.
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit,
www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees,
and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views
expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is
a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
Most investors will be focused on Washington this week, as American
lawmakers struggle to save the troubled US automotive manufacturers.
Our region will certainly be watching closely, with our significant
exposure to the auto industry. As factories and suppliers lay off
thousands in this area, our whole economic situation is dramatically
impaired. Many workers in Southwestern Ontario are being forced to
revisit their retirement plans. If you are concerned about your
financial future, looking for a second opinion, or worried whether
your investments are sufficient to meet your retirement needs, give me
a call.
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit,
www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees,
and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views
expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is
a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Friday, December 5, 2008
Retirement Savings
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts
for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
Traditional retirement thinking has taken quite a hit this year, and
many investors need to revisit their planning, to see if their dream
still matches their reality. A lot of press has been dedicated to the
short term slide in the market, but the long term impact on retirement
savings is the real story. Many investors are realizing that
retirement security is not about achieving some magic dollar value in
savings, but about ensuring they do not outlive their money, while
maintaining their desired lifestyle. Tune in tomorrow at 8:30, as i
discuss the new realities of retirement planning, and consider if it
is time for a fresh, new approach. Have you outgrown your mutual
funds?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit,
www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees,
and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views
expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is
a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
Traditional retirement thinking has taken quite a hit this year, and
many investors need to revisit their planning, to see if their dream
still matches their reality. A lot of press has been dedicated to the
short term slide in the market, but the long term impact on retirement
savings is the real story. Many investors are realizing that
retirement security is not about achieving some magic dollar value in
savings, but about ensuring they do not outlive their money, while
maintaining their desired lifestyle. Tune in tomorrow at 8:30, as i
discuss the new realities of retirement planning, and consider if it
is time for a fresh, new approach. Have you outgrown your mutual
funds?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit,
www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees,
and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views
expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is
a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Product Allocation
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts
for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
The Bear market of 2008 has put a dent in many portfolios. One of the
most common questions I hear is, "Will I still have enough for my
retirement?" Although many well made plans may have been derailed by
the recent market downturn, the fear is greatest among those within a
few years of retirement. One new concept that has emerged is product
allocation, which moves beyond traditional financial plans, focused
only on the ideal dollar amount and asset mix. This planning process
focuses on using the many investment vehicles available to retirees
today, and should significantly reduce the risk of outliving your
money. Want to learn more?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit,
www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees,
and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views
expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is
a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
The Bear market of 2008 has put a dent in many portfolios. One of the
most common questions I hear is, "Will I still have enough for my
retirement?" Although many well made plans may have been derailed by
the recent market downturn, the fear is greatest among those within a
few years of retirement. One new concept that has emerged is product
allocation, which moves beyond traditional financial plans, focused
only on the ideal dollar amount and asset mix. This planning process
focuses on using the many investment vehicles available to retirees
today, and should significantly reduce the risk of outliving your
money. Want to learn more?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit,
www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees,
and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views
expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is
a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Monday, December 1, 2008
The big picture
The big picture
Obama announces economic team
Markets responded favourably to president-elect Barack Obama’s announcement of several key members of his economic team. On Monday, he tapped New York Federal Reserve President Timothy Geitner as his Treasury Secretary and named Lawrence Summers his Chief White House Economic Adviser. On Wednesday, he appointed former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker to head a new White House panel to create jobs and bring stability to the country's financial system. In making these announcements, Obama promised Americans that “help is on the way.”
Indeed, more help is already on the way. The U.S. government introduced a pair of new programs Tuesday that will provide US$800 billion to help unfreeze the market for consumer debt and to make mortgage loans cheaper and more available.
The new programs from the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department are the latest efforts to get the U.S. financial system back to more normal operations.
In Canada, federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty did not announce any fiscal stimulus in Thursday’s economic update. However, he intends to move up the tabling of the next federal budget “as soon as possible” in order to introduce a package of infrastructure spending and other measures to stimulate the sagging economy.
The markets
Stocks looking up — except BCE
Volatility is going to remain high, but it’s hard not to get excited when markets post solid gains. In fact, the four trading days between Friday the 21st and Wednesday the 26th were the best four days of consecutive gains for U.S. markets since 1933, with the S&P 500 advancing 18%, the Nasdaq adding 16.4% and the Dow gaining 15.5%.
Over the same period, the S&P/TSX only managed a gain of 11.8%, with much of that underperformance likely attributable to the collapse of the BCE takeover deal. BCE shares dropped 34% on Wednesday, subtracting 133 points from the TSX in the process, on news that the $50 billion privatization deal led by the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan is now very unlikely to proceed after BCE failed to meet certain solvency tests in an auditor’s report. If you would like a copy of our latest report on BCE, please feel free to contact me.
Our recommendation
Consider banks for dividend yield
· Equities. Gareth Watson, Associate Director, Portfolio Advisory Group, suggests that some Canadian bank shares offer attractive and sustainable dividend yields. Consider Royal Bank and Bank of Nova Scotia.
· Fixed income. Chris Kennedy, Associate Director, Portfolio Advisory Group, recommends investors consider adding exposure to high quality corporate bonds, such as Canadian banks and insurance companies, which continue to offer attractive yields relative to government issues.
· Portfolio strategy. Some regions and sectors have been hit harder than others. Consider reviewing your portfolio allocations to take advantage of lower relative valuations in these areas.
Jeff Wareham
Wealth Advisor
ScotiaMcLeod
148 Fullarton Street,
Suite 1801
London, ON
N6A 5P3
Tel: (519) 660-3260
Toll Free: (800) 265-1242
Fax: (519) 660-3208
Email Jeff
Visit my website
Greg Holland
Tel: (519) 660-3239
Email Greg
Ann Martin
Tel: (519) 660-3260
Email Ann
Unsubscribe
Privacy Policy and Legal Disclaimer
TM Trademarks used under authorization and control of The Bank of Nova Scotia.
ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc., Member CIPF
This publication is intended only to convey information. It is not to be construed as an investment guide or as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned in it. The author is an employee of ScotiaMcLeod, a division of Scotia Capital Inc. ("SCI"), but the data selection, analysis and views expressed herein are solely those of the author and not those of SCI. The author has taken all usual and reasonable precautions to determine that the information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and that the procedures used to summarize and analyze such information are based on approved practices and principles in the investment industry. However, the market forces underlying investment value are subject to sudden and dramatic changes and data availability varies from one moment to the next. Consequently, neither the author nor SCI can make any warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of information, analysis or views contained in this publication or their usefulness or suitability in any particular circumstance. You should not undertake any investment or portfolio assessment or other transaction on the basis of this publication, but should first consult your investment advisor, who can assess all relevant particulars of any proposed investment or transaction. SCI and the author accept no liability of whatsoever kind for any damages or losses incurred by you as a result of reliance upon or use of this publication in contravention of this notice. All performance data represents past performance and is not indicative of future performance. Scotia Capital Inc. and its affiliates collectively beneficially own in excess of 1% of one or more classes of the issued and outstanding equity securities of Royal Bank. Within the last 12 months, Scotia Capital Inc. and/or its affiliates have undertaken an underwriting liability with respect to equity or debt securities of, or have provided advice for a fee with respect to Royal Bank. TM Trademark used under authorization and control of The Bank of Nova Scotia. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc., Member CIPF.
Obama announces economic team
Markets responded favourably to president-elect Barack Obama’s announcement of several key members of his economic team. On Monday, he tapped New York Federal Reserve President Timothy Geitner as his Treasury Secretary and named Lawrence Summers his Chief White House Economic Adviser. On Wednesday, he appointed former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker to head a new White House panel to create jobs and bring stability to the country's financial system. In making these announcements, Obama promised Americans that “help is on the way.”
Indeed, more help is already on the way. The U.S. government introduced a pair of new programs Tuesday that will provide US$800 billion to help unfreeze the market for consumer debt and to make mortgage loans cheaper and more available.
The new programs from the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department are the latest efforts to get the U.S. financial system back to more normal operations.
In Canada, federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty did not announce any fiscal stimulus in Thursday’s economic update. However, he intends to move up the tabling of the next federal budget “as soon as possible” in order to introduce a package of infrastructure spending and other measures to stimulate the sagging economy.
The markets
Stocks looking up — except BCE
Volatility is going to remain high, but it’s hard not to get excited when markets post solid gains. In fact, the four trading days between Friday the 21st and Wednesday the 26th were the best four days of consecutive gains for U.S. markets since 1933, with the S&P 500 advancing 18%, the Nasdaq adding 16.4% and the Dow gaining 15.5%.
Over the same period, the S&P/TSX only managed a gain of 11.8%, with much of that underperformance likely attributable to the collapse of the BCE takeover deal. BCE shares dropped 34% on Wednesday, subtracting 133 points from the TSX in the process, on news that the $50 billion privatization deal led by the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan is now very unlikely to proceed after BCE failed to meet certain solvency tests in an auditor’s report. If you would like a copy of our latest report on BCE, please feel free to contact me.
Our recommendation
Consider banks for dividend yield
· Equities. Gareth Watson, Associate Director, Portfolio Advisory Group, suggests that some Canadian bank shares offer attractive and sustainable dividend yields. Consider Royal Bank and Bank of Nova Scotia.
· Fixed income. Chris Kennedy, Associate Director, Portfolio Advisory Group, recommends investors consider adding exposure to high quality corporate bonds, such as Canadian banks and insurance companies, which continue to offer attractive yields relative to government issues.
· Portfolio strategy. Some regions and sectors have been hit harder than others. Consider reviewing your portfolio allocations to take advantage of lower relative valuations in these areas.
Jeff Wareham
Wealth Advisor
ScotiaMcLeod
148 Fullarton Street,
Suite 1801
London, ON
N6A 5P3
Tel: (519) 660-3260
Toll Free: (800) 265-1242
Fax: (519) 660-3208
Email Jeff
Visit my website
Greg Holland
Tel: (519) 660-3239
Email Greg
Ann Martin
Tel: (519) 660-3260
Email Ann
Unsubscribe
Privacy Policy and Legal Disclaimer
TM Trademarks used under authorization and control of The Bank of Nova Scotia.
ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc., Member CIPF
This publication is intended only to convey information. It is not to be construed as an investment guide or as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned in it. The author is an employee of ScotiaMcLeod, a division of Scotia Capital Inc. ("SCI"), but the data selection, analysis and views expressed herein are solely those of the author and not those of SCI. The author has taken all usual and reasonable precautions to determine that the information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and that the procedures used to summarize and analyze such information are based on approved practices and principles in the investment industry. However, the market forces underlying investment value are subject to sudden and dramatic changes and data availability varies from one moment to the next. Consequently, neither the author nor SCI can make any warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of information, analysis or views contained in this publication or their usefulness or suitability in any particular circumstance. You should not undertake any investment or portfolio assessment or other transaction on the basis of this publication, but should first consult your investment advisor, who can assess all relevant particulars of any proposed investment or transaction. SCI and the author accept no liability of whatsoever kind for any damages or losses incurred by you as a result of reliance upon or use of this publication in contravention of this notice. All performance data represents past performance and is not indicative of future performance. Scotia Capital Inc. and its affiliates collectively beneficially own in excess of 1% of one or more classes of the issued and outstanding equity securities of Royal Bank. Within the last 12 months, Scotia Capital Inc. and/or its affiliates have undertaken an underwriting liability with respect to equity or debt securities of, or have provided advice for a fee with respect to Royal Bank. TM Trademark used under authorization and control of The Bank of Nova Scotia. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc., Member CIPF.
December 1, 2008
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts
for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
Lost in the news of terrorist attacks and Black Friday shopping,
something very unusual has happened over the last few days. The US
market has had it's greatest 5 day rally in 75 years, and Toronto has
posted six straight positive days. Sentiment among investors is very
negative, but with record cash on the sidelines, when the market
turns, it could turn very quickly, as investors jump in to avoid being
left behind. I believe we will continue to see short term volatility,
but I am very encouraged by the recent change in market sentiment, and
I believe that you should be looking very carefully at your mix of
assets, to determine if you are well positioned for the long term.
Most important, there are new, innovative ways to position yourself in
equities, while protecting your investment.
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit,
www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees,
and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views
expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is
a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
Lost in the news of terrorist attacks and Black Friday shopping,
something very unusual has happened over the last few days. The US
market has had it's greatest 5 day rally in 75 years, and Toronto has
posted six straight positive days. Sentiment among investors is very
negative, but with record cash on the sidelines, when the market
turns, it could turn very quickly, as investors jump in to avoid being
left behind. I believe we will continue to see short term volatility,
but I am very encouraged by the recent change in market sentiment, and
I believe that you should be looking very carefully at your mix of
assets, to determine if you are well positioned for the long term.
Most important, there are new, innovative ways to position yourself in
equities, while protecting your investment.
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit,
www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees,
and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views
expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is
a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Friday, November 28, 2008
November 28, 2008
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts
for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
November draws to a close today, and it has been another very
difficult month for investors. However, for the first time in months,
we have had five positive days in a row on the TSX. This may not be a
cause for celebration, but at least the violent, late day sell offs we
have seen seem to have abated.The market remains a very challenging
place for investors, and we will likely see more difficult days during
this downturn, but as year end approaches, there are many good reasons
to review your portfolio, and your strategy.
If you are looking for a second opinion, or a fresh perspective on
preparing for what's next, give me a call.
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit,
www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees,
and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views
expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is
a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
November draws to a close today, and it has been another very
difficult month for investors. However, for the first time in months,
we have had five positive days in a row on the TSX. This may not be a
cause for celebration, but at least the violent, late day sell offs we
have seen seem to have abated.The market remains a very challenging
place for investors, and we will likely see more difficult days during
this downturn, but as year end approaches, there are many good reasons
to review your portfolio, and your strategy.
If you are looking for a second opinion, or a fresh perspective on
preparing for what's next, give me a call.
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit,
www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees,
and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views
expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is
a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Time to Look Ahead
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts
for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
Thanksgiving is here for our American friends, and perhaps we should
be thankful for a couple of days of relief from all of the US
responses to the economic crisis. Day after day, we see dramatic, and
often confusing, program announcements. Most announcements are aimed
at restoring confidence in the US economy, and stimulating consumer
spending. The size, and number, of these programs tell us that
turning the corner will not be easy, but, at least in theory, they
should work. After the bruising you have likely taken in this recent
bear market, it may be tough to think long term, but there are real
opportunities that will emerge from the massive response that has been
required to this financial crisis. Are you prepared for what's next?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit,
www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees,
and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views
expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is
a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
Thanksgiving is here for our American friends, and perhaps we should
be thankful for a couple of days of relief from all of the US
responses to the economic crisis. Day after day, we see dramatic, and
often confusing, program announcements. Most announcements are aimed
at restoring confidence in the US economy, and stimulating consumer
spending. The size, and number, of these programs tell us that
turning the corner will not be easy, but, at least in theory, they
should work. After the bruising you have likely taken in this recent
bear market, it may be tough to think long term, but there are real
opportunities that will emerge from the massive response that has been
required to this financial crisis. Are you prepared for what's next?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit,
www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees,
and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views
expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is
a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Monday, November 24, 2008
End of the Year Advice
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts
for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
Year end is quickly approaching, and now is a great time to be
assessing the impact of this year's dreadful markets on financial and
tax planning. In particular, it may be a great time to talk to your
financial and tax advisors about the opportunity to use capital losses
against capital gains you may have paid in the past few years. Proper
planning may not eliminate the pain of the Bear Market of 2008, but it
may allow you to recoup taxes you have paid in past.
If you have not considered this option, or would like a second
opinion, please give me a call.
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit,
www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees,
and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views
expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is
a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
Year end is quickly approaching, and now is a great time to be
assessing the impact of this year's dreadful markets on financial and
tax planning. In particular, it may be a great time to talk to your
financial and tax advisors about the opportunity to use capital losses
against capital gains you may have paid in the past few years. Proper
planning may not eliminate the pain of the Bear Market of 2008, but it
may allow you to recoup taxes you have paid in past.
If you have not considered this option, or would like a second
opinion, please give me a call.
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit,
www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees,
and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views
expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is
a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Friday, November 21, 2008
Reduce the Risk to Your Retirement Security
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
The uncertainty of 2008 hit new heights yesterday as Toronto’s TSX suffered its second worst day ever.
The destructive effect on portfolios is dramatic, and many investors have to revisit their retirement plans. Fortunately, there are new and exciting solutions that will help ensure you do not outlive your money. In fact, a well constructed portfolio will help you dramatically reduce the risk to your retirement security. Tune in to Beyond Funds Market Weekly tomorrow, as I review the unique new ways to ensure you enjoy a secure retirement.
Have you outgrown your mutual funds?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF.
The uncertainty of 2008 hit new heights yesterday as Toronto’s TSX suffered its second worst day ever.
The destructive effect on portfolios is dramatic, and many investors have to revisit their retirement plans. Fortunately, there are new and exciting solutions that will help ensure you do not outlive your money. In fact, a well constructed portfolio will help you dramatically reduce the risk to your retirement security. Tune in to Beyond Funds Market Weekly tomorrow, as I review the unique new ways to ensure you enjoy a secure retirement.
Have you outgrown your mutual funds?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
How do I ensure that I don't outlive my money?
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
After a challenging year, one of the most common questions I hear is “how do I ensure I don’t outlive my money?”
The fall in your portfolio value is toughest if you are close to retirement. You may have to reconsider your options. There is little question the last few months may have impacted your plans, but with proper planning, we can find the right mix of investment solutions to minimize the risk of running out of money in retirement.
You really should explore your options. Now is the time to ask, have you outgrown your mutual funds?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
After a challenging year, one of the most common questions I hear is “how do I ensure I don’t outlive my money?”
The fall in your portfolio value is toughest if you are close to retirement. You may have to reconsider your options. There is little question the last few months may have impacted your plans, but with proper planning, we can find the right mix of investment solutions to minimize the risk of running out of money in retirement.
You really should explore your options. Now is the time to ask, have you outgrown your mutual funds?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Monday, November 17, 2008
Costs associated with your mutual fund
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
Volatility continues to plague equity markets. In challenging markets, it is difficult to look at the details, but I encourage you to look into the costs associated with your mutual funds. Most mutual funds have not stood up well through the current market downturn. Canadians pay the highest management fees in the world, and the impact is pretty dramatic. Approximately one quarter of the long term return of equity funds is lost to management fees. Mutual funds definitely have their place, but I encourage you to consider if you are getting what you pay for.
Now is the perfect time to ask “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Volatility continues to plague equity markets. In challenging markets, it is difficult to look at the details, but I encourage you to look into the costs associated with your mutual funds. Most mutual funds have not stood up well through the current market downturn. Canadians pay the highest management fees in the world, and the impact is pretty dramatic. Approximately one quarter of the long term return of equity funds is lost to management fees. Mutual funds definitely have their place, but I encourage you to consider if you are getting what you pay for.
Now is the perfect time to ask “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
11% swing in American markets
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
This market has reached new heights when it comes to volatility and uncertainty. North American markets swung by up to 11 percent during the day yesterday. It is pretty tough to make long term decisions in a market experiencing such short term uncertainty. Believe it or not, there were very encouraging signs in the market’s performance of Wednesday and Thursday. Tune in tomorrow at 8:30, as I discuss another challenging week, and look at planning for the long term in difficult market conditions.
Now is the perfect time to ask “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
This market has reached new heights when it comes to volatility and uncertainty. North American markets swung by up to 11 percent during the day yesterday. It is pretty tough to make long term decisions in a market experiencing such short term uncertainty. Believe it or not, there were very encouraging signs in the market’s performance of Wednesday and Thursday. Tune in tomorrow at 8:30, as I discuss another challenging week, and look at planning for the long term in difficult market conditions.
Now is the perfect time to ask “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Have a long term strategy
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
Volatility continues to plague equity markets. The significant intraday swings have more impact on the professional traders than they do on a long term investor, but they sure do contribute to fear and uncertainty. Even if you want to invest, it is tough to step in to a market that fluctuates several percent per day. How do you invest, without getting caught in the violent swings?
The key is to have a long term strategy, and work with an advisor to select the best solutions to meet your goals. Short term swings will happen, but if you believe in what you are buying, it is likely worth being patient.
Now is the perfect time to ask “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Volatility continues to plague equity markets. The significant intraday swings have more impact on the professional traders than they do on a long term investor, but they sure do contribute to fear and uncertainty. Even if you want to invest, it is tough to step in to a market that fluctuates several percent per day. How do you invest, without getting caught in the violent swings?
The key is to have a long term strategy, and work with an advisor to select the best solutions to meet your goals. Short term swings will happen, but if you believe in what you are buying, it is likely worth being patient.
Now is the perfect time to ask “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Monday, November 10, 2008
Time for a 2nd opinion?
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
As I mentioned on my Saturday show, September and October were quite awful, and many investors may dread opening their most recent statements. Avoiding the issue is a bad idea, especially at this time of year. There are many planning opportunities that arise at year end, especially for mutual fund investors. Now is the time for a second opinion, and a serious look at your long term strategy. Give me a call, and let’s discuss if the investment solutions you are currently using are still appropriate in the current market environment.
Now is the perfect time to ask “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
As I mentioned on my Saturday show, September and October were quite awful, and many investors may dread opening their most recent statements. Avoiding the issue is a bad idea, especially at this time of year. There are many planning opportunities that arise at year end, especially for mutual fund investors. Now is the time for a second opinion, and a serious look at your long term strategy. Give me a call, and let’s discuss if the investment solutions you are currently using are still appropriate in the current market environment.
Now is the perfect time to ask “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Market Watch
The big picture
Rate cuts exceed expectations
On Thursday, the Bank of England slashed its benchmark interest rate by an unprecedented 1.5%, bringing it down to 3%. The size of the cut jolted financial markets, which had expected at most a 75 basis point (a “bps”, or basis point, is 1/100th of one percent) reduction. The European Central Bank quickly followed by cutting its rate by half a point to 3.25%. Also on Thursday, interbank lending rates recorded their 19th consecutive daily drop, signalling a continued increase in credit market confidence.
The Canadian dollar finished October down 11.6%, its largest monthly decline ever. At roughly 85 cents, the Loonie now trades near the middle of its range—well below its high of nearly $1.10 a year ago, and well above its record low of $0.62 in Jan 2002.
Although studies have shown that stock markets fare better with Democrats in power, the S&P 500 tumbled 5.3% Wednesday following the election of Barack Obama. Market participants are undoubtedly waiting to see how an Obama administration will address the current economic environment. He will make his Washington debut as president-elect November 10 with a visit to the White House to discuss transition plans with President George W. Bush.
The markets
Yes, it really has been that bad
September and October were simply awful months for the markets. The TSX lost 14.6% in September and 16.9% in October, resulting in a year-to-date loss of 29.4% as of October 31st. Many market commentators have said this is the worst period they’ve ever seen, and they are not exaggerating. Looking at data as far back as 1940, there has never been a comparable loss on the TSX.
While we are truly in unchartered territory, history offers at least one positive hint of the future. With the exception of 2000–2001, every time the TSX has declined more than 10% in a given year, it has posted a positive return in the following year. While this is no guarantee of a positive return in 2009, down markets have almost always shown clear signs of recovery within 12 months of a crisis.
Our recommendation
Look for relative value
Equities.
It’s a stock picker’s market. Stick to your long-term investment strategy, but consider adding selected companies to your portfolio at prices reflecting value.
Fixed income.
The yields on high quality corporate bonds such as Canadian banks and insurance companies have further improved versus government bonds. Consider adding exposure.
Portfolio strategy.
Some regions and sectors have been hit harder than others. Consider reviewing your portfolio allocations to take advantage of lower relative valuations in these areas.
For more information or a copy of our in-depth ScotiaMcLeod Weekly Market Strategy report, please call me, Jeff Wareham, Wealth Advisor
(519) 660-3260 jeff_wareham@scotiamcleod.com
Rate cuts exceed expectations
On Thursday, the Bank of England slashed its benchmark interest rate by an unprecedented 1.5%, bringing it down to 3%. The size of the cut jolted financial markets, which had expected at most a 75 basis point (a “bps”, or basis point, is 1/100th of one percent) reduction. The European Central Bank quickly followed by cutting its rate by half a point to 3.25%. Also on Thursday, interbank lending rates recorded their 19th consecutive daily drop, signalling a continued increase in credit market confidence.
The Canadian dollar finished October down 11.6%, its largest monthly decline ever. At roughly 85 cents, the Loonie now trades near the middle of its range—well below its high of nearly $1.10 a year ago, and well above its record low of $0.62 in Jan 2002.
Although studies have shown that stock markets fare better with Democrats in power, the S&P 500 tumbled 5.3% Wednesday following the election of Barack Obama. Market participants are undoubtedly waiting to see how an Obama administration will address the current economic environment. He will make his Washington debut as president-elect November 10 with a visit to the White House to discuss transition plans with President George W. Bush.
The markets
Yes, it really has been that bad
September and October were simply awful months for the markets. The TSX lost 14.6% in September and 16.9% in October, resulting in a year-to-date loss of 29.4% as of October 31st. Many market commentators have said this is the worst period they’ve ever seen, and they are not exaggerating. Looking at data as far back as 1940, there has never been a comparable loss on the TSX.
While we are truly in unchartered territory, history offers at least one positive hint of the future. With the exception of 2000–2001, every time the TSX has declined more than 10% in a given year, it has posted a positive return in the following year. While this is no guarantee of a positive return in 2009, down markets have almost always shown clear signs of recovery within 12 months of a crisis.
Our recommendation
Look for relative value
Equities.
It’s a stock picker’s market. Stick to your long-term investment strategy, but consider adding selected companies to your portfolio at prices reflecting value.
Fixed income.
The yields on high quality corporate bonds such as Canadian banks and insurance companies have further improved versus government bonds. Consider adding exposure.
Portfolio strategy.
Some regions and sectors have been hit harder than others. Consider reviewing your portfolio allocations to take advantage of lower relative valuations in these areas.
For more information or a copy of our in-depth ScotiaMcLeod Weekly Market Strategy report, please call me, Jeff Wareham, Wealth Advisor
(519) 660-3260 jeff_wareham@scotiamcleod.com
Friday, November 7, 2008
10% decline in dow in last two days
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
Any enthusiasm investors felt earlier this week has faded, with a ten percent decline in the Dow in the last two days. Incredibly, that two day fall meets the technical definition of a correction all on its own. The problem is, a ten percent swing can put a serious dent in your retirement plan. In such challenging times, you really need to consider a defensive strategy. The challenge is protecting capital, while finding investments that will grow as the market eventually stabilizes.
Tune in tomorrow, to Beyond Funds Market Weekly, as I discuss strategies to deal with the current market volatility, and ensure your portfolio is able to meet your long term needs.
Now is the perfect time to ask “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Any enthusiasm investors felt earlier this week has faded, with a ten percent decline in the Dow in the last two days. Incredibly, that two day fall meets the technical definition of a correction all on its own. The problem is, a ten percent swing can put a serious dent in your retirement plan. In such challenging times, you really need to consider a defensive strategy. The challenge is protecting capital, while finding investments that will grow as the market eventually stabilizes.
Tune in tomorrow, to Beyond Funds Market Weekly, as I discuss strategies to deal with the current market volatility, and ensure your portfolio is able to meet your long term needs.
Now is the perfect time to ask “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Is the worst over?
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
Another major concern that has haunted global markets disappeared last night, as the Americans selected their next president.
Volatility has dropped to a one month low, credit markets are getting a bit better, and global markets surged yesterday. Is the worst over? Perhaps, but Scotia released research yesterday forecasting further volatility, and a possible retest of our recent lows over the next few months. It may be tempting to rush back into the market, but a carefully constructed portfolio is your best bet moving forward. Opportunity abounds in the market, but prudence is the key.
Now is the perfect time to ask “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Another major concern that has haunted global markets disappeared last night, as the Americans selected their next president.
Volatility has dropped to a one month low, credit markets are getting a bit better, and global markets surged yesterday. Is the worst over? Perhaps, but Scotia released research yesterday forecasting further volatility, and a possible retest of our recent lows over the next few months. It may be tempting to rush back into the market, but a carefully constructed portfolio is your best bet moving forward. Opportunity abounds in the market, but prudence is the key.
Now is the perfect time to ask “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Monday, November 3, 2008
A Look back at October
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
October 2008 is over, and few investors will miss it. Last month saw record volatility, and significant losses, especially for investors in Canadian equity mutual funds. Many investors need to revisit their portfolios, and decide if the investments they own are consistent with their long term goals. If this describes you, feel free to give me a call, and I will help you review your situation.
Now is the perfect time to ask “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
October 2008 is over, and few investors will miss it. Last month saw record volatility, and significant losses, especially for investors in Canadian equity mutual funds. Many investors need to revisit their portfolios, and decide if the investments they own are consistent with their long term goals. If this describes you, feel free to give me a call, and I will help you review your situation.
Now is the perfect time to ask “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
October 29, 2008
First, let me thank everyone who braved last night’s weather, and attended my seminar. Like the weather, the last two days have been pretty severe. Market volatility continues, with the second worst day ever on a percentage basis on Monday, followed by a huge rally Tuesday. The last two days, like much of October, have tested investors nerves. You, like many investors, may want to find options to protect your capital in frightening times, and I can help.
Now is the perfect time to ask “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Now is the perfect time to ask “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Monday, October 27, 2008
October 27, 2008
Last week’s market volatility looks to continue today, as global markets have sold off sharply overnight. Finding safety in troubled markets is tough, but there are ways to play it safe. With proper planning, you can stay invested in equities, and even take advantage of the current low prices of stocks, while protecting your capital. Traditional mutual funds won’t do it as they do not have any guarantees attached. Want to know more? We still have a couple of seats available for tomorrow’s seminar. If you want to reserve a seat, give me a call.
Now is the perfect time to ask “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Now is the perfect time to ask “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
October 24, 2008
This week, I have been focusing on market volatility.
The North American markets look set to follow global markets much lower this morning, only adding to investor fear.
In frightening times, you may wish to find a safe haven for your money, but many traditionally safe investments have also been hit in this downturn.
You may even recognize there are opportunities everywhere, but it is a difficult time to do anything.
You may not realize that there are alternatives for you, if you are looking for safety of your principal, without giving up on the long term opportunities in the global market.
Whether you are fearful, or encouraged, why not join me for next week’s complimentary seminar, where I discuss unique ways to invest in equities, with a guarantee that protects your principal.
Now is the perfect time to ask “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
The North American markets look set to follow global markets much lower this morning, only adding to investor fear.
In frightening times, you may wish to find a safe haven for your money, but many traditionally safe investments have also been hit in this downturn.
You may even recognize there are opportunities everywhere, but it is a difficult time to do anything.
You may not realize that there are alternatives for you, if you are looking for safety of your principal, without giving up on the long term opportunities in the global market.
Whether you are fearful, or encouraged, why not join me for next week’s complimentary seminar, where I discuss unique ways to invest in equities, with a guarantee that protects your principal.
Now is the perfect time to ask “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
October 22, 2008 Morning Spot
Another day, another nearly 500 point move in the stock market. Volatility really is the latest story in the challenging markets of 2008. Volatility is actually evidence of fear in the market, but it is also a contributor to investor fear. The wilder the swing in the major indices the worse investors feel. Although we have seen a lot of swings in the last few weeks, a long term investor does have alternatives to protect their capital, while staying invested for the long term.
Whether you are fearful, or encouraged, why not join me for next week’s complimentary seminar, where I discuss unique ways to invest in equities, with a guarantee that protects your principal.
Now is the perfect time to ask “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Whether you are fearful, or encouraged, why not join me for next week’s complimentary seminar, where I discuss unique ways to invest in equities, with a guarantee that protects your principal.
Now is the perfect time to ask “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Monday, October 20, 2008
October 20, 2008 Morning Spot
Last week, we saw all time record volatility. If you have been scared by the losses in the last few months, the uncertainty of last week’s unparalleled market swings would only heighten your concern…yet part of last week’s story should give you hope. Buyers and sellers are both in the market, and the volatility may mark an important turn in sentiment. You may recognize this, but what do you do?
Whether you are fearful, or encouraged, why not join me for next week’s complimentary seminar, where I discuss unique ways to invest in equities, with a guarantee that protects your principal.
Now is the perfect time to ask “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Whether you are fearful, or encouraged, why not join me for next week’s complimentary seminar, where I discuss unique ways to invest in equities, with a guarantee that protects your principal.
Now is the perfect time to ask “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Friday, October 17, 2008
The week that was
Wow...another pretty dramatic week on Global Markets...some amazing action all around.
In case you missed it...while our markets were closed on Thanksgiving Monday, we missed a massive global rally...but Japan, which was also closed, showed Canada the way, making up for the holiday in japan by rallying about 13 percent overnight...Toronto opened seventeen hundred points higher...obliterating the old record, but surrendered nearly one thousndd of the points before the market closed...meanwhile, New York gave back a fair chunk of Monday's gains. Japan managed to give away all their gains, and more, falling nearly 20 percent over the next two days. Toronto fell below last week's lows by Thursday, with an intraday drop of over 500 points. The Dow was down 300 plus points Thursday morning, before bouncing over 700 points, closing up 400. Friday saw Toronto tear ahead over 500 points, only to give half of the gain back...while the Dow fell, after being up over 200 points.
What was the final dasmage? First and foremost, investors' nerves must be rather frayed, with intraday moves in the 10-15 percent range. This was bourne out by the VIX, a rather complicated measure of volatility measurement, which essentially equates the level of fear in the market with a number. Scotia Capital has an analyst who has traditionally indicated panic is any level above 30...a number rarely reached over the last year...incredibly, this week, we smashed through 50, 60 70, and 80...indicating an immense level of fear in the market. Many global markets are now down over 40 percent on a year to date basis...and the seizure in the global bond market is perhaps even worse than the sell off in equities.
Sounds awfully gloomy, and there was lots of reasons for concern: globally, terrible consumer and housing numbers, and locally, rotten news on the employment front. But, as the old saying goes, it is always darkest before the dawn.
Here is the positive side. First, the US credit markets appear to be freeing up, at least marginally...the best indication of this is the gradual normalization of LIBOR, which reflects the gradual willingness of banks to lend to each other. The Dow managed to fit in its worst day in 21 years, and still have its best week in 5 years. Toronto rose on the week, albeit less than the US...and Toronto;s pain was the world's gain, as stocks in the oil patch swooned, as oil dropped to less than half of its June peak.
The bottoms of markets generally come when fear reaches a peak. This month's market behaviour really shows a great deal of fear...and there are definitely signs of a level of market despair consistent with a market bottom.
Ultimately, the best news may be that Warren Buffet, the Oracle of Omaha, is buying stock in his own account...a rare endorsement from a man who keeps the lion's share of his personal account in US government bonds. With little yield available in bonds, and government treasuries thus selling at excellent prices, Buffet would appear to be following his long held belief in buying at deep discounts, and selling when he achieves maximum value.
In case you missed it...while our markets were closed on Thanksgiving Monday, we missed a massive global rally...but Japan, which was also closed, showed Canada the way, making up for the holiday in japan by rallying about 13 percent overnight...Toronto opened seventeen hundred points higher...obliterating the old record, but surrendered nearly one thousndd of the points before the market closed...meanwhile, New York gave back a fair chunk of Monday's gains. Japan managed to give away all their gains, and more, falling nearly 20 percent over the next two days. Toronto fell below last week's lows by Thursday, with an intraday drop of over 500 points. The Dow was down 300 plus points Thursday morning, before bouncing over 700 points, closing up 400. Friday saw Toronto tear ahead over 500 points, only to give half of the gain back...while the Dow fell, after being up over 200 points.
What was the final dasmage? First and foremost, investors' nerves must be rather frayed, with intraday moves in the 10-15 percent range. This was bourne out by the VIX, a rather complicated measure of volatility measurement, which essentially equates the level of fear in the market with a number. Scotia Capital has an analyst who has traditionally indicated panic is any level above 30...a number rarely reached over the last year...incredibly, this week, we smashed through 50, 60 70, and 80...indicating an immense level of fear in the market. Many global markets are now down over 40 percent on a year to date basis...and the seizure in the global bond market is perhaps even worse than the sell off in equities.
Sounds awfully gloomy, and there was lots of reasons for concern: globally, terrible consumer and housing numbers, and locally, rotten news on the employment front. But, as the old saying goes, it is always darkest before the dawn.
Here is the positive side. First, the US credit markets appear to be freeing up, at least marginally...the best indication of this is the gradual normalization of LIBOR, which reflects the gradual willingness of banks to lend to each other. The Dow managed to fit in its worst day in 21 years, and still have its best week in 5 years. Toronto rose on the week, albeit less than the US...and Toronto;s pain was the world's gain, as stocks in the oil patch swooned, as oil dropped to less than half of its June peak.
The bottoms of markets generally come when fear reaches a peak. This month's market behaviour really shows a great deal of fear...and there are definitely signs of a level of market despair consistent with a market bottom.
Ultimately, the best news may be that Warren Buffet, the Oracle of Omaha, is buying stock in his own account...a rare endorsement from a man who keeps the lion's share of his personal account in US government bonds. With little yield available in bonds, and government treasuries thus selling at excellent prices, Buffet would appear to be following his long held belief in buying at deep discounts, and selling when he achieves maximum value.
October 17, 2008 Morning Spot
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
Day after day, we are experiencing unprecedented market volatility. In times like these, you really should consider the many options that provide greater security of your principal, and guaranteed returns. You owe it to yourself to explore if there are solutions that are superior to traditional mutual funds. Join me in a series of upcoming seminars focused on alternatives for investors who are outgrowing traditional mutual funds. Alternatively, you can book a one on one appointment. Now is the perfect time to ask “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Day after day, we are experiencing unprecedented market volatility. In times like these, you really should consider the many options that provide greater security of your principal, and guaranteed returns. You owe it to yourself to explore if there are solutions that are superior to traditional mutual funds. Join me in a series of upcoming seminars focused on alternatives for investors who are outgrowing traditional mutual funds. Alternatively, you can book a one on one appointment. Now is the perfect time to ask “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
October 15, 2008 Daily Morning Spot
Market volatility has reached new heights, as yesterday saw an all time record rise for the TSX, on the heels of a record Dow rise on Monday. When they turn, Bear Markets end very quickly, and a significant portion of the returns in a new Bull Market happen very early on…this is not to say we have seen the bottom of the current Bear, but it does make it critical to reposition your portfolio to benefit when the Bear Market ends. Many mutual funds have been forced into selling as investors panicked, and are not positioned for the recovery. If you have not discussed preparing your portfolio for the eventual recovery, perhaps you should call for a second opinion.
There is no better time to ask, “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF.
There is no better time to ask, “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
October 13, 2008 Daily Morning Spot
I recently heard the perfect definition of a bear market. A Bear market is an extended period of time where people who think this time it's different, sell at prices we'll never see again, to people who know this time is no different!
As I watched CNBC the other day, the headline read "A Bear Like No Other." It would be easy to fall into the trap of thinking this bear market is different. We have learned about CDOs, Mortgage Backed Securities, illiquid fixed income products, toxic debt...all unique problems from the Grisly Bear Market of 2008. But, regardless of the cause, this is ultimately still a bear market Research shows that the average bear market results in a decline of roughly 30% whereas the average bull market generates a gain of 200%
I have ideas relevant to long term growth, capital preservation, and income, depending on your needs.
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF.
As I watched CNBC the other day, the headline read "A Bear Like No Other." It would be easy to fall into the trap of thinking this bear market is different. We have learned about CDOs, Mortgage Backed Securities, illiquid fixed income products, toxic debt...all unique problems from the Grisly Bear Market of 2008. But, regardless of the cause, this is ultimately still a bear market Research shows that the average bear market results in a decline of roughly 30% whereas the average bull market generates a gain of 200%
I have ideas relevant to long term growth, capital preservation, and income, depending on your needs.
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF.
Friday, October 10, 2008
October 10, 2008 Daily Morning Spot
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor.
I recently heard the perfect definition of a bear market. A Bear market is an extended period of time where people who think this time it's different, sell at prices we'll never see again, to people who know this time is no different!
As I watched CNBC the other day, the headline read "A Bear Like No Other." It would be easy to fall into the trap of thinking this bear market is different. We have learned about CDOs, Mortgage Backed Securities, illiquid fixed income products, toxic debt...all unique problems from the Grisly Bear Market of 2008. But, regardless of the cause, this is ultimately still a bear market Research shows that the average bear market results in a decline of roughly 30% whereas the average bull market generates a gain of 200%
I have ideas relevant to long term growth, capital preservation, and income, depending on your needs.
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF.
I recently heard the perfect definition of a bear market. A Bear market is an extended period of time where people who think this time it's different, sell at prices we'll never see again, to people who know this time is no different!
As I watched CNBC the other day, the headline read "A Bear Like No Other." It would be easy to fall into the trap of thinking this bear market is different. We have learned about CDOs, Mortgage Backed Securities, illiquid fixed income products, toxic debt...all unique problems from the Grisly Bear Market of 2008. But, regardless of the cause, this is ultimately still a bear market Research shows that the average bear market results in a decline of roughly 30% whereas the average bull market generates a gain of 200%
I have ideas relevant to long term growth, capital preservation, and income, depending on your needs.
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Some thoughts on Bear Markets.
Some thoughts on Bear Markets.
I recently heard the perfect definition for a bear market. A Bear market
is an extended period of time where people who think this time it's
different, sell at prices we'll never see again, to people who know this
time is no different!
As I watched CNBC the other day, the headline read "A Bear Like No Other."
It would be easy to fall into the trap of thinking this bear market is
different. We have learned about CDOs, Mortgage Backed Securities, illiquid
fixed income products, toxic debt...all unique problems from the Grisly
Bear Market of 2008. But, regardless of the cause, bear markets have many
common characteristics, and they generally end with a capitulation, when
the lion's share of nervous investors have surrender. Almost everyone knows
that they should buy low and sell high, but the reality is, most investors
do exactly the wrong thing...after all, prices fall when there are more
sellers than buyers, and peak at the zenith of buying euphoria. The nature
of markets dictate that the majority will buy high, and sell low.
Let me share a piece I think is useful;
Four Reasons to stay invested
1. Long term growth prevails
2. Emotional investing works against you
3. Bull markets are more effective than bear markets
4. The market works against market timers
Research shows that the average bear market results in a decline of roughly
30% whereas the average bull market generates a gain of 200%
I have ideas relevant to long term growth, capital preservation, and
income, depending on your needs.
Please call Ann, Greg, or me, if you wish to discuss positioning your
situation.
Jeff Wareham, CFP, RHU
Wealth Advisor
ScotiaMcLeod
148 Fullarton Ave, Suite 1801
London, ON
N6A 5P3
519 660 3260
http://www.jeffwareham.ca
1 800 265 1242
I recently heard the perfect definition for a bear market. A Bear market
is an extended period of time where people who think this time it's
different, sell at prices we'll never see again, to people who know this
time is no different!
As I watched CNBC the other day, the headline read "A Bear Like No Other."
It would be easy to fall into the trap of thinking this bear market is
different. We have learned about CDOs, Mortgage Backed Securities, illiquid
fixed income products, toxic debt...all unique problems from the Grisly
Bear Market of 2008. But, regardless of the cause, bear markets have many
common characteristics, and they generally end with a capitulation, when
the lion's share of nervous investors have surrender. Almost everyone knows
that they should buy low and sell high, but the reality is, most investors
do exactly the wrong thing...after all, prices fall when there are more
sellers than buyers, and peak at the zenith of buying euphoria. The nature
of markets dictate that the majority will buy high, and sell low.
Let me share a piece I think is useful;
Four Reasons to stay invested
1. Long term growth prevails
2. Emotional investing works against you
3. Bull markets are more effective than bear markets
4. The market works against market timers
Research shows that the average bear market results in a decline of roughly
30% whereas the average bull market generates a gain of 200%
I have ideas relevant to long term growth, capital preservation, and
income, depending on your needs.
Please call Ann, Greg, or me, if you wish to discuss positioning your
situation.
Jeff Wareham, CFP, RHU
Wealth Advisor
ScotiaMcLeod
148 Fullarton Ave, Suite 1801
London, ON
N6A 5P3
519 660 3260
http://www.jeffwareham.ca
1 800 265 1242
October 8, 2008 Daily Morning Spot
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
The market sell off continues, as Asian and European markets are down several percent today. Markets in North America look to follow suit when they open. At this point, the sell off appears to be driven primarily by emotion, rather than any particular event. In fact, step by step, many governments are taking critical actions to shore up the global financial system, which is at the root of much of the weakness. Yesterday, on Jeff McArthur’s show, I suggested that investor’s shorter term money should be out of the market, but longer term money still belongs in equities and bonds, subject to an investor’s risk tolerance. In these volatile times, it is absolutely critical to look at your long term plans, determine if you are still on track, and decide if there are better alternatives to achieve your goals.
If you really are concerned, and think it is time for a second opinion, feel free to contact me.
There is no better time to ask, “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF.
The market sell off continues, as Asian and European markets are down several percent today. Markets in North America look to follow suit when they open. At this point, the sell off appears to be driven primarily by emotion, rather than any particular event. In fact, step by step, many governments are taking critical actions to shore up the global financial system, which is at the root of much of the weakness. Yesterday, on Jeff McArthur’s show, I suggested that investor’s shorter term money should be out of the market, but longer term money still belongs in equities and bonds, subject to an investor’s risk tolerance. In these volatile times, it is absolutely critical to look at your long term plans, determine if you are still on track, and decide if there are better alternatives to achieve your goals.
If you really are concerned, and think it is time for a second opinion, feel free to contact me.
There is no better time to ask, “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF.
Monday, October 6, 2008
October 6, 2008 Daily Morning Spot
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
Last week’s market sell off has started again overnight, as Asian and European markets are down several percent. Today looks like another very difficult day for investors. It seems Friday’s bailout package is a distant memory.
In these volatile times, it is absolutely critical to look at your long term plans, determine if you are still on track, and decide if there are better alternatives to achieve your goals.
If you really are concerned, and think it is time for a second opinion, feel free to contact me.
There is no better time to ask, “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF.
Last week’s market sell off has started again overnight, as Asian and European markets are down several percent. Today looks like another very difficult day for investors. It seems Friday’s bailout package is a distant memory.
In these volatile times, it is absolutely critical to look at your long term plans, determine if you are still on track, and decide if there are better alternatives to achieve your goals.
If you really are concerned, and think it is time for a second opinion, feel free to contact me.
There is no better time to ask, “have you outgrown your mutual funds?”
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF.
Friday, October 3, 2008
The week that was...glad that it is over!
To keep things in perspective, I think it would be useful to look at some thoughts on Bear Markets, from Scotia Capital
BEAR MARKET STATISTICS
Several advisors have asked recently for some historical perspective on this current bear market. Attached is a table from Scotia Capital with data for both the Canadian and U.S. markets looking back through several cycles.
The good news is that the data demonstrates that rebounds always occur and that returns from trough levels are substantial.
We would caution however that although we are close to average decline levels in both Canada and the U.S., the current situation should not be considered "average" by any measure. It is worse this time.
Bear markets trough during recessions, they don’t wait until the end of the recession has been identified. Having said that, consensus opinion is only now acknowledging that the U.S. is falling into a recession and that the rest of the global economy is heading in the same direction. The credit crisis is significantly worse than most peoples' worst fears and the U.S. financial system is in terrible shape.
As we have stated previously, stability in the U.S. housing market, or some anticipation thereof, is a vital pre-condition for any sustainable upward move in equity markets. Recent market volatility will likely be the norm for some time to come.
BEAR MARKET STATISTICS
Several advisors have asked recently for some historical perspective on this current bear market. Attached is a table from Scotia Capital with data for both the Canadian and U.S. markets looking back through several cycles.
The good news is that the data demonstrates that rebounds always occur and that returns from trough levels are substantial.
We would caution however that although we are close to average decline levels in both Canada and the U.S., the current situation should not be considered "average" by any measure. It is worse this time.
Bear markets trough during recessions, they don’t wait until the end of the recession has been identified. Having said that, consensus opinion is only now acknowledging that the U.S. is falling into a recession and that the rest of the global economy is heading in the same direction. The credit crisis is significantly worse than most peoples' worst fears and the U.S. financial system is in terrible shape.
As we have stated previously, stability in the U.S. housing market, or some anticipation thereof, is a vital pre-condition for any sustainable upward move in equity markets. Recent market volatility will likely be the norm for some time to come.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
October 1, 2008 Daily Morning Spot
September 2008 is over, and in spite of yesterday’s rally, it was ugly.
The TSX was down about 15% last month, and many of the issues that have led markets lower remain unresolved.
The VIX, a well known measure of market fear, remains near record highs.
October may not be as difficult as September, but it is likely to have its challenges.
If you are worried about your financial future, and are looking for a second opinion, feel free to contact me.
Have you outgrown your mutual funds?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF.
The TSX was down about 15% last month, and many of the issues that have led markets lower remain unresolved.
The VIX, a well known measure of market fear, remains near record highs.
October may not be as difficult as September, but it is likely to have its challenges.
If you are worried about your financial future, and are looking for a second opinion, feel free to contact me.
Have you outgrown your mutual funds?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF.
Monday, September 29, 2008
September 29, 2008 Daily Morning Spot
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
Busy people frequently have complicated financial lives, and few are busier than professionals.
As your practise grows, you have greater needs, and less time to deal with them. The secret is to build a team of experts to help.
At ScotiaMcLeod, we have many services tailored to the needs of professionals, both as investors, and business owners.
Join us for lunch on October 7th, as Dave McKerlie of Scotia Bank, Chris Carlton, of Scotia Funds, and I discuss the special financial planning needs of professionals.
To reserve a seat, give me a call.
Have you outgrown your mutual funds?
Busy people frequently have complicated financial lives, and few are busier than professionals.
As your practise grows, you have greater needs, and less time to deal with them. The secret is to build a team of experts to help.
At ScotiaMcLeod, we have many services tailored to the needs of professionals, both as investors, and business owners.
Join us for lunch on October 7th, as Dave McKerlie of Scotia Bank, Chris Carlton, of Scotia Funds, and I discuss the special financial planning needs of professionals.
To reserve a seat, give me a call.
Have you outgrown your mutual funds?
Friday, September 26, 2008
September 26, 2008 Morning Spot
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
Today promises to be another challenging and difficult day, as the US government bail out package has suddenly run aground. In addition, the largest US bank failure ever occurred overnight.
Both Canadian and US markets will likely be under pressure, for different reasons.
Tune in tomorrow at 8:30, as I discuss another remarkable week in a month of dramatic developments, and offer ideas for investors looking for safety in volatile and challenging times.
.
Have you outgrown your mutual funds?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF.
Today promises to be another challenging and difficult day, as the US government bail out package has suddenly run aground. In addition, the largest US bank failure ever occurred overnight.
Both Canadian and US markets will likely be under pressure, for different reasons.
Tune in tomorrow at 8:30, as I discuss another remarkable week in a month of dramatic developments, and offer ideas for investors looking for safety in volatile and challenging times.
.
Have you outgrown your mutual funds?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
MARKET COMMENTARY BY JIM O’SHAUGHNESSY
Here are some fascinating thoughts from a market legend.
"MARKET COMMENTARY BY JIM O’SHAUGHNESSY: SEPTEMBER 2008
It’s time to take a collective breath.
Amid the Fed-engineered takeover of Bear Stearns by J.P. Morgan, the
collapse of Lehman Brothers, the nationalization of AIG and Merrill Lynch’s
rush into the arms of Bank of America, we need to ask ourselves “Why do we
invest in the stock market?” The answer is simple and straightforward: we
invest in the stock market because, given all the alternatives—from bonds
and t-bills to real estate and commodities—the stock market has
historically offered the best long-term performance—even when everyone is
afraid that the sky is falling and that the bottom is dropping out of the
market. If we compare all of these investments over rolling 20-year
periods and adjust for inflation, only stocks (as measured by a proxy for
the S&P 500) have never had a negative return.
An Historic Opportunity
It sure may not feel like it, but the market is presenting us with a rare
opportunity. In times like these, most investors panic and sell.
Behavioral economists have identified a consistent bias they have dubbed
regency bias, where investors project the current market conditions way
too far into the future. This causes them to seek safety from the
volatility instead of leading them to see the market decline as a gift
that allows them to buy stocks at vastly lower prices. Rational,
historically driven methods like those we use at OSAM dictate that you and
your clients must do the opposite. Successful investors study history.
They unglue themselves from the present and make decisions using
historical information that helps them understand what happened after
every other crisis. They understand and react to the present in terms of
its antecedents and what can reasonably be expected for the future.
Yesterday and tomorrow, as well as today, make up their now. By studying
what has happened after similar downturns in the past, informed investors
gain perspective, letting what they know transcend how they feel, and this
becomes an emotional pressure valve.
What you and your clients do right now will affect both of your tomorrows.
Urge them to do what I started doing in July and will continue to do over
the next few months—convert all of your cash earmarked for investment in
equities to investments in the stock market."
"MARKET COMMENTARY BY JIM O’SHAUGHNESSY: SEPTEMBER 2008
It’s time to take a collective breath.
Amid the Fed-engineered takeover of Bear Stearns by J.P. Morgan, the
collapse of Lehman Brothers, the nationalization of AIG and Merrill Lynch’s
rush into the arms of Bank of America, we need to ask ourselves “Why do we
invest in the stock market?” The answer is simple and straightforward: we
invest in the stock market because, given all the alternatives—from bonds
and t-bills to real estate and commodities—the stock market has
historically offered the best long-term performance—even when everyone is
afraid that the sky is falling and that the bottom is dropping out of the
market. If we compare all of these investments over rolling 20-year
periods and adjust for inflation, only stocks (as measured by a proxy for
the S&P 500) have never had a negative return.
An Historic Opportunity
It sure may not feel like it, but the market is presenting us with a rare
opportunity. In times like these, most investors panic and sell.
Behavioral economists have identified a consistent bias they have dubbed
regency bias, where investors project the current market conditions way
too far into the future. This causes them to seek safety from the
volatility instead of leading them to see the market decline as a gift
that allows them to buy stocks at vastly lower prices. Rational,
historically driven methods like those we use at OSAM dictate that you and
your clients must do the opposite. Successful investors study history.
They unglue themselves from the present and make decisions using
historical information that helps them understand what happened after
every other crisis. They understand and react to the present in terms of
its antecedents and what can reasonably be expected for the future.
Yesterday and tomorrow, as well as today, make up their now. By studying
what has happened after similar downturns in the past, informed investors
gain perspective, letting what they know transcend how they feel, and this
becomes an emotional pressure valve.
What you and your clients do right now will affect both of your tomorrows.
Urge them to do what I started doing in July and will continue to do over
the next few months—convert all of your cash earmarked for investment in
equities to investments in the stock market."
September 24, 2008
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
On Mpnday, I discussed the safety of traditionally secure investments. The US government has been dithering with the rescue package intended to solve this problem, and it has really been reminiscent of Nero fiddling while Rome burns. In response, we have seen the worst 2 day sell off in six years.
In spite of this negativity, some incredibly positive signs have emerged. Several major firms have announced massive buybacks, Warren Buffet has taken a major interest in the struggling brokerage market, and Jim O’Shaughnessy, one of Wall Street’s brightest managers, released a note suggesting this time is one of history’s great buying opportunities. I will be posting some of his comments later, on www.beyondfunds.ca. If you are nervous about the markets, take a minute and read it.
Have you outgrown your mutual funds?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF.
On Mpnday, I discussed the safety of traditionally secure investments. The US government has been dithering with the rescue package intended to solve this problem, and it has really been reminiscent of Nero fiddling while Rome burns. In response, we have seen the worst 2 day sell off in six years.
In spite of this negativity, some incredibly positive signs have emerged. Several major firms have announced massive buybacks, Warren Buffet has taken a major interest in the struggling brokerage market, and Jim O’Shaughnessy, one of Wall Street’s brightest managers, released a note suggesting this time is one of history’s great buying opportunities. I will be posting some of his comments later, on www.beyondfunds.ca. If you are nervous about the markets, take a minute and read it.
Have you outgrown your mutual funds?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF.
Monday, September 22, 2008
September 22, 2008 Morning Spot
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
After last week’s volatility and uncertainty in the market, you may be worried if your money is truly safe.
The insecurity extended from Wall Street firms, to major insurance companies and money market funds.
The many actions taken by the US government and Central Banks around the world may have averted a major crisis, but you really should sit down with your advisor, and ensure that the investment products and solutions you are in reflect your comfort level with risk.
If you have not heard from your advisor, or want a second opinion, give me a call.
Have you outgrown your mutual funds?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF.
After last week’s volatility and uncertainty in the market, you may be worried if your money is truly safe.
The insecurity extended from Wall Street firms, to major insurance companies and money market funds.
The many actions taken by the US government and Central Banks around the world may have averted a major crisis, but you really should sit down with your advisor, and ensure that the investment products and solutions you are in reflect your comfort level with risk.
If you have not heard from your advisor, or want a second opinion, give me a call.
Have you outgrown your mutual funds?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF.
September 19, 2008 Morning Spot
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
It has been a remarkable week, and today promises to follow suit.
Fear and insecurity have reached record levels…and investors have seen some dramatic developments. Government and central bank intervention around the world happened almost daily, and markets have swooned and surged in response.
Tune in tomorrow to Beyond Funds Market Weekly, as I dissect and review a week that is likely to be the subject of many books in future.
Even money market funds and T bills in the US have been a part of the problem…and I will tackle the subject of whether your money market funds truly are safe.
Have you outgrown your mutual funds?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF.
It has been a remarkable week, and today promises to follow suit.
Fear and insecurity have reached record levels…and investors have seen some dramatic developments. Government and central bank intervention around the world happened almost daily, and markets have swooned and surged in response.
Tune in tomorrow to Beyond Funds Market Weekly, as I dissect and review a week that is likely to be the subject of many books in future.
Even money market funds and T bills in the US have been a part of the problem…and I will tackle the subject of whether your money market funds truly are safe.
Have you outgrown your mutual funds?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
September 17, 2008
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with some thoughts for investors outgrowing their mutual funds.
After touching bear market territory yesterday, the Canadian markets officially joined the global slide in equities. The most common question I am asked is, “What’s going on?” Today we hear that a US money market fund has suspended withdrawals for a week…you may be justified wondering “Is my money really safe?”
There are many causes of the current sell off, but the key is to have a long term strategy, and work with an advisor to ensure that your plan is consistent with your investment decisions.
Please visit my blog on AM980’s’s web site, for an in depth review of this very subject
Have you outgrown your mutual funds?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF.
After touching bear market territory yesterday, the Canadian markets officially joined the global slide in equities. The most common question I am asked is, “What’s going on?” Today we hear that a US money market fund has suspended withdrawals for a week…you may be justified wondering “Is my money really safe?”
There are many causes of the current sell off, but the key is to have a long term strategy, and work with an advisor to ensure that your plan is consistent with your investment decisions.
Please visit my blog on AM980’s’s web site, for an in depth review of this very subject
Have you outgrown your mutual funds?
For a review your portfolio, or a complimentary copy of my CD, visit, www.beyondfunds.ca or call me, Jeff Wareham, at 519 660 3260.
This program is for information purposes only. Fees, management fees, and commissions may be associated with mutual fund investing.
Investors should consult their prospectus before investing. Views expressed are those of the author, not Scotia Capital. ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc, member CIPF.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
September 16, 2008 Daily Market Wrap
This is Jeff Wareham, ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor, with your daily market wrap for September 16th, 2008. Markets were a little more stable today, although Toronto briefly entered
bear market territory. Toronto lost 27 points, after being down over 200
points earlier, while the Dow finished up 141 points, the NASDAQ up 22 points, and the S&P finished up 21 points... Oil ended at 92.95 dollars per barrel, and the Canadian was steady at ended at 93.42 cents US. Gold closed at $783 per ounce This is for information purposes only, Best efforts have been made to furnish accurate data...Performance data does not represent future performance. ScotiaMcLeod s a division of Scotia Capital, member CIPF.
Tune in Saturdays at 8:30 AM, for Beyond Funds Market Weekly, for further information on the markets, visit my blog on AM 980's website, or at www.beyondfunds.ca Jeff Wareham, CFP, RHU Wealth Advisor ScotiaMcLeod 148 Fullarton Ave, Suite 1801 London, ON N6A 5P3 519 660 3260 http://www.jeffwareham.ca 1 800 265 1242 Fax 519 660 3208
bear market territory. Toronto lost 27 points, after being down over 200
points earlier, while the Dow finished up 141 points, the NASDAQ up 22 points, and the S&P finished up 21 points... Oil ended at 92.95 dollars per barrel, and the Canadian was steady at ended at 93.42 cents US. Gold closed at $783 per ounce This is for information purposes only, Best efforts have been made to furnish accurate data...Performance data does not represent future performance. ScotiaMcLeod s a division of Scotia Capital, member CIPF.
Tune in Saturdays at 8:30 AM, for Beyond Funds Market Weekly, for further information on the markets, visit my blog on AM 980's website, or at www.beyondfunds.ca Jeff Wareham, CFP, RHU Wealth Advisor ScotiaMcLeod 148 Fullarton Ave, Suite 1801 London, ON N6A 5P3 519 660 3260 http://www.jeffwareham.ca 1 800 265 1242 Fax 519 660 3208
What's going on in the markets
Given the uncertainty of the Canadian Markets, I thought I would share some thoughts from Gareth Watson, of Scotia Capital.
What’s Going On
September 11, 2008 Market Overview:
Non-Financials are Oversold
While we have never been believers that the month of the year should dictate whether or not you buy stocks (fundamentals should), it would appear that the month of September and the TSX Index are not the best of friends this year. In fact the TSX has not been performing well since its 2008 closing high of 15,073 on June 18. Declines of the past week or so have been particularly dramatic, leaving investors to wonder “what’s going on?” We provide a table showing the performance of the TSX Index by sector since the June 18 year high, the beginning of September and on a year to date basis below: We won’t attribute all of the weakness over the past three months or the past week to one reason alone as there have been numerous catalysts causing investors to sell. Although not exhaustive, we highlight some of the more prevalent reasons below.
1) GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN More attributable to weakness seen over the past three months is the fact more evidence has emerged indicating that global growth is slowing. While the U.S. has stolen many of the economic weakness headlines in 2008, and rightfully so, it is other parts of the world that have entered the spotlight since June. European countries such as Germany and Great Britain along with Asian countries such as Japan have been slowing, while China’s growth has been brought into question with the passing of the Olympic Games. Such signs and signals tend to wave red flags around commodities as investors question whether demand will be strong going forward. As they concluded that demand could come under pressure, commodity related stocks have found more willing sellers than buyers.
2) U.S.DOLLAR STRENGTH = COMMODITYWEAKNESSWith other economies showing signs of weakness relative to the U.S., the U.S. trade weighted dollar index has actually done quite well since mid July, rising from about 72 to almost 80 or 11% in 2 months. As mostinvestors are aware, commodities are priced in U.S. dollars. Therefore, when the U.S. dollar weakens, it takes more U.S. dollars to buy a barrel or pound or ounce of a commodity. The reverse is also true when the U.S. dollar strengthens which is exactly what has happened. A strengthening dollar requires fewer U.S. dollars to buy that same commodity and therefore commodity prices fall. As you can see in the performance chart we have provided by sector, the Energy and Materials sectors make up 44.7% of the TSX index. When commodity prices fall, you’re bound see the TSX index come under pressure.
What’s Going On
September 11, 2008 Market Overview:
Non-Financials are Oversold
While we have never been believers that the month of the year should dictate whether or not you buy stocks (fundamentals should), it would appear that the month of September and the TSX Index are not the best of friends this year. In fact the TSX has not been performing well since its 2008 closing high of 15,073 on June 18. Declines of the past week or so have been particularly dramatic, leaving investors to wonder “what’s going on?” We provide a table showing the performance of the TSX Index by sector since the June 18 year high, the beginning of September and on a year to date basis below: We won’t attribute all of the weakness over the past three months or the past week to one reason alone as there have been numerous catalysts causing investors to sell. Although not exhaustive, we highlight some of the more prevalent reasons below.
1) GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN More attributable to weakness seen over the past three months is the fact more evidence has emerged indicating that global growth is slowing. While the U.S. has stolen many of the economic weakness headlines in 2008, and rightfully so, it is other parts of the world that have entered the spotlight since June. European countries such as Germany and Great Britain along with Asian countries such as Japan have been slowing, while China’s growth has been brought into question with the passing of the Olympic Games. Such signs and signals tend to wave red flags around commodities as investors question whether demand will be strong going forward. As they concluded that demand could come under pressure, commodity related stocks have found more willing sellers than buyers.
2) U.S.DOLLAR STRENGTH = COMMODITYWEAKNESSWith other economies showing signs of weakness relative to the U.S., the U.S. trade weighted dollar index has actually done quite well since mid July, rising from about 72 to almost 80 or 11% in 2 months. As mostinvestors are aware, commodities are priced in U.S. dollars. Therefore, when the U.S. dollar weakens, it takes more U.S. dollars to buy a barrel or pound or ounce of a commodity. The reverse is also true when the U.S. dollar strengthens which is exactly what has happened. A strengthening dollar requires fewer U.S. dollars to buy that same commodity and therefore commodity prices fall. As you can see in the performance chart we have provided by sector, the Energy and Materials sectors make up 44.7% of the TSX index. When commodity prices fall, you’re bound see the TSX index come under pressure.
3) HEDGE FUND SELLING/FORCED LIQUIDATION The emergence and growth of hedge funds this decade has made them very influential at times in moving the market. The weakness of commodity prices in August actually resulted in some hedge funds closing their doors as losses were substantial. In order to pay out investors and wind down funds, positions have been thrown into the market and sold at whatever price available. This increase in selling has put a lot of pressure on commodity related stocks in September and has likely resulted in further selling as investors speculate that other hedge funds could fail and be forced to liquidate. The influence of hedge funds is accentuated by their levered investments which punish investors more severely when those investments are off-side. 4) THE CREDIT CRUNCH JUST KEEPS ON CHUGGING ALONG Those investors that thought the bailout of Bear Stearns was a sign the worst was over in the credit markets have been sorely mistaken. The credit environment continues to be a challenge and U.S. financials have been through another couple of scares including the fears of further failures leading up to quarterly results in July and recent speculation that Lehman Brothers (LEH) may be the next large financial institution to shut its doors. Combine that with the recent bailout of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae by the U.S. government, thus indicating that all is not well in the U.S. housing and mortgage market, and you’ve got a nice recipe for financial weakness. While this factor has been more influential in the United States, we certainly have seen Canadian banks come under pressure at times due to credit related events and news. 5) GOOD OLD FASHIONED PANIC SELLING When investors see the magnitude of this past week’s declines their first reaction is to get out to avoid further losses. While perhaps such emotions may not have moved the market to massive degree, they certainly created more sellers in the market place.
Now that we’ve identified some of the catalysts, let me share my thoughts on what we’re thinking about them from a Canadian equity market perspective.
1) GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN The U.S. economy has been struggling for some time. Is it really a surprise that Canada, Europe, Asia and the emerging markets are following suit? Absolutely not. Those investors that thought certain economies, such as China, would be completely immune from the slowdown of the world’s largest economy (25% of world GDP) come to realize that the influence of the U.S. economy is widespread even during times of economic weakness. Yes, places such as China will still continue to grow, but to become immune is another story. We don’t think that investors are surprised that other economies are showing signs of weakness, but we do believe those same investors are likely surprised by the speed at which the slowdown has occurred. The negative headlines which seem to come out on a daily basis from Europe are certainly dampening growth and commodity demand expectations. However, we would point out that even though emerging markets are likely to post lower growth numbers this year that absolute growth levels posted will still be decent. Sure, China will not exceed the 11.9%GDP growth rate posted in 2007, but 8% growth in a country of 1.3 billion people is nothing to frown at either.We also dismiss the conclusion that the Chinese economy will slow down now that the Olympics have come and gone. The multi-year growth and investment in China has not been due to the hosting of a sporting event alone as China is bigger than the Olympics. What we’ve witnessed is not a cyclical change, but a generational change and therefore we believe growth and investment in that country should continue for some time to come.
2) U.S.DOLLAR STRENGTH = COMMODITYWEAKNESSYes, economies outside of the United States have slowed as of late which may make the U.S. dollar look more attractive on a relative basis, but we question how much better and whether or not the recent strength has been over done. We also question whether or not the U.S. is going to be able to get its economy back on track sooner than later. All indications would lead us to conclude that the U.S. economy still has many obstacles to over come and the U.S. dollar is in for a tough fight if it intends to continue its upward trend. Is the U.S. dollar really looking that good these days? The currency of a country which is having one of the worst real estate downturns in decades, where housing prices continue to fall, where delinquencies continue to rise, and where housing inventories continue to climb? The currency of a country which will post a budget deficit of at least $400 billion this year, excluding the impact of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae? And the currency of a country where the U.S. consumer has cut back on spending and has been responsible for at least 75% of aggregate demand? We’re not convinced and wouldn’t be surprised if we see the U.S. dollar give back some of its recent gains before economic conditions eventually improve. If such a retreat occurs it will only help resource stocks and thus the TSX regain lost ground. One of the most commonly asked questions in 2008 is whether or not the U.S. is in recession. Our response is that such a question is irrelevant at this stage when it comes to making investment decisions. The economic data speaks for itself. If it looks awful, smells awful or tastes awful….chances are, it’s awful.
What’s Going On
3) HEDGE FUND SELLING/FORCED LIQUIDATION
Without a doubt redemptions and liquidations have had a material impact on the TSX in September, but we can find a silver lining to this weakness and that is that the selling we’ve seen over the past week is more related to “having” to sell and less related to “wanting” to sell. In other words, all of this selling hasn’t occurred because there is something fundamentally wrong with the companies and sectors being sold, it’s because the sellers need to get their hands on the proceeds as quickly as possible. It’s just like someone selling a house as soon as possible in order to fund the purchase of a new one. You don’t care as much about the price you receive as long as you can get the highest price possible in the time constraints provided. So what does this mean for Canadian investors? If the selling was solely related to fundamentals we’d be far more nervous than we are right now, but since it’s forced selling we’re quite convinced that recent weakness has done nothing but create a great buying opportunity especially amongst commodity related names.
4) THE CREDIT CRUNCH JUST KEEPS ON CHUGGING ALONG
The credit crunch is now over a year old. It was started by sub prime mortgages but has spread into other areas of the financial system. We’ve had three noticeable credit related selloffs in the equity markets and we wouldn’t be surprised to see more. Why? Because if credit concerns can be tied to the U.S. real estate market and if that market has done nothing but fall, then it’s very hard to make the argument that the financial sector should grow while underlying assets and securities struggle. Is the credit crunch going to disappear any time soon? Well we’re already a year in and still haven’t really restored faith in the credit environment or seen any signs of stability in the U.S. real estate market. We find it very difficult, especially in the current economic environment, to get excited about financials as long as growth slows, real estate prices fall, and the U.S government bails out financial institutions. What we will concede though is that Canadian banks are in a much better financial position than their U.S. or global counterparts which is evidenced by the fact that their share prices have outperformed their global peers since the credit crisis began. At the same time, even though they pay a nice dividend, we remind investors that banks are economically sensitive and thus will continue to find their operating environment difficult in the short term.
5) GOOD OLD FASHIONED PANIC SELLING
Panic selling is just like forced selling…it’s not the result of a fundamental conclusion but more a result of an impulse reaction. I found a great quote in some of my reading this week from a strategist at Citigroup who said “emotion’s your enemy, not your friend”. We couldn’t agree more. It’s recent pull backs like we’ve seen in September that remind us that we need to keep our focus on long term financial goals and less on short term news and noise. Long terms plans should not necessarily change just because the market is working against you in the short term. Ignoring the short term and focusing long term is one of the most difficult skills an investor can develop; however, such an ability is necessary to help set and meet the goals of a long term financial plan. The winners of panic selling are usually not those who sell their positions, but those that buy them for the long term.
What’s Going On
So what should you take away from our discussion above?
• Recent TSX Index weakness has been predominantly commodity related.
• Economies around the world are going to continue to show signs of weakness, and the U.S. isn’t going to improve any time soon.
• U.S. dollar strength has contributed to short term commodity price weakness, but the outlook for the Greenback is such that recent gains could be given back and commodity prices could get some support in the future.
• The credit crunch is here for a while yet. Accept it and move on.
• Non-fundamental selling is painful in the short term but opportunistic for long term investors.
"Emotion’s your enemy, not your friend”.
With all this in mind we have come to the conclusion that recent TSX weakness has been over done and thatcommodity related equities are over sold. The weakness of September has created a long term buying opportunity. While some may question the timing of this call (is it too soon?) we will concede that we will never be able to time the bottom of this downturn considering the volatility we’ve witnessed thus far. If we happen to time it well I’ll be the first to admit that the exact timing was more a function of luck than skill. But what’s important here is that from a valuation perspective commodity related stocks and stocks in other sectors that sold off in sympathy with the broader market offer long term value. Although further short term downside is a distinct possibility, we believe long term investors will look back on September 2008 as one of the better buying opportunities of the year. To discuss these opportunities and how they may benefit your portfolio, please contact your ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor - Gareth Watson, CFA – Associate Director Portfolio Advisory Group
(The author(s) of the report own(s) securities of the following companies. None. The supervisors of the Portfolio Advisory Group own securities of the following companies. None. Scotia Capital is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF). ScotiaMcLeod is a division of Scotia Capital Inc. (·SCI·). This report has been prepared by SCI on behalf of the Investment Executive. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as totheir accuracy or completeness. Neither SCI nor its affiliates accept liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not, and is not to be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities and/or commodity futures contracts. SCI, its affiliates and/or their respective officers, directors or employees may from time to time acquire, hold or sell securities and/or commodities and/or commodity futures contracts mentioned herein as principal or agent. SCI and/or its affiliates may have acted as financial advisor and/or underwriter for certain of the corporations mentioned herein and may have received and may receive remuneration for same. The content may have been based, at least in part, on material provided by Credit Suisse First Boston Corporation ("CSFB"), ourcorrespondent research service. CSFB has given ScotiaMcLeod general permission to use its research reports as source materials,but has not reviewed or approved this report, nor has it been informed of its publication. CSFB may from time to time have long orshort positions in, effect transactions in, and make markets in securities referred to herein. CSFB may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company mentioned in this report.This research and all the information opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever, nor may the information, opinions, and conclusionscontained in it be referred to without in each case the prior express consent of SCI. SCI is a wholly owned subsidiary of a Canadian chartered bank. SCI is a member of The Securities and Futures Authority Limited E&O.E. U.S. Residents: Scotia Capital (U.S.A) Inc. (·SCUSAI·), a wholly owned subsidiary of SCI, accepts responsibility for the contents herein, subject to the terms and limitations setout above. Any U.S. person wishing further information or to effect transactions in any security discussed herein should contact SCUSAI at 212-225-6500.)
What’s Going On
3) HEDGE FUND SELLING/FORCED LIQUIDATION
Without a doubt redemptions and liquidations have had a material impact on the TSX in September, but we can find a silver lining to this weakness and that is that the selling we’ve seen over the past week is more related to “having” to sell and less related to “wanting” to sell. In other words, all of this selling hasn’t occurred because there is something fundamentally wrong with the companies and sectors being sold, it’s because the sellers need to get their hands on the proceeds as quickly as possible. It’s just like someone selling a house as soon as possible in order to fund the purchase of a new one. You don’t care as much about the price you receive as long as you can get the highest price possible in the time constraints provided. So what does this mean for Canadian investors? If the selling was solely related to fundamentals we’d be far more nervous than we are right now, but since it’s forced selling we’re quite convinced that recent weakness has done nothing but create a great buying opportunity especially amongst commodity related names.
4) THE CREDIT CRUNCH JUST KEEPS ON CHUGGING ALONG
The credit crunch is now over a year old. It was started by sub prime mortgages but has spread into other areas of the financial system. We’ve had three noticeable credit related selloffs in the equity markets and we wouldn’t be surprised to see more. Why? Because if credit concerns can be tied to the U.S. real estate market and if that market has done nothing but fall, then it’s very hard to make the argument that the financial sector should grow while underlying assets and securities struggle. Is the credit crunch going to disappear any time soon? Well we’re already a year in and still haven’t really restored faith in the credit environment or seen any signs of stability in the U.S. real estate market. We find it very difficult, especially in the current economic environment, to get excited about financials as long as growth slows, real estate prices fall, and the U.S government bails out financial institutions. What we will concede though is that Canadian banks are in a much better financial position than their U.S. or global counterparts which is evidenced by the fact that their share prices have outperformed their global peers since the credit crisis began. At the same time, even though they pay a nice dividend, we remind investors that banks are economically sensitive and thus will continue to find their operating environment difficult in the short term.
5) GOOD OLD FASHIONED PANIC SELLING
Panic selling is just like forced selling…it’s not the result of a fundamental conclusion but more a result of an impulse reaction. I found a great quote in some of my reading this week from a strategist at Citigroup who said “emotion’s your enemy, not your friend”. We couldn’t agree more. It’s recent pull backs like we’ve seen in September that remind us that we need to keep our focus on long term financial goals and less on short term news and noise. Long terms plans should not necessarily change just because the market is working against you in the short term. Ignoring the short term and focusing long term is one of the most difficult skills an investor can develop; however, such an ability is necessary to help set and meet the goals of a long term financial plan. The winners of panic selling are usually not those who sell their positions, but those that buy them for the long term.
What’s Going On
So what should you take away from our discussion above?
• Recent TSX Index weakness has been predominantly commodity related.
• Economies around the world are going to continue to show signs of weakness, and the U.S. isn’t going to improve any time soon.
• U.S. dollar strength has contributed to short term commodity price weakness, but the outlook for the Greenback is such that recent gains could be given back and commodity prices could get some support in the future.
• The credit crunch is here for a while yet. Accept it and move on.
• Non-fundamental selling is painful in the short term but opportunistic for long term investors.
"Emotion’s your enemy, not your friend”.
With all this in mind we have come to the conclusion that recent TSX weakness has been over done and thatcommodity related equities are over sold. The weakness of September has created a long term buying opportunity. While some may question the timing of this call (is it too soon?) we will concede that we will never be able to time the bottom of this downturn considering the volatility we’ve witnessed thus far. If we happen to time it well I’ll be the first to admit that the exact timing was more a function of luck than skill. But what’s important here is that from a valuation perspective commodity related stocks and stocks in other sectors that sold off in sympathy with the broader market offer long term value. Although further short term downside is a distinct possibility, we believe long term investors will look back on September 2008 as one of the better buying opportunities of the year. To discuss these opportunities and how they may benefit your portfolio, please contact your ScotiaMcLeod Wealth Advisor - Gareth Watson, CFA – Associate Director Portfolio Advisory Group
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